New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 9/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Florida

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-160) Miami (+132)

The New York Mets (82-77) are en route to loanDepot park on Sunday where they will take on the Miami Marlins (77-82). The moneyline on this contest has the Mets at -160 and the Marlins open at +132. The total has been set at 9. The starting pitchers are David Peterson and Edward Cabrera.

New York owns a slugging percentage of .429 and have been called out on strikes 1,295 times, while drawing a walk on 547 occasions. They have accumulated 740 runs batted in as well as 1,340 hits this season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .250. The Mets have hit 258 doubles as a squad and have smacked 222 baseballs out of the stadium. They have earned a total of 759 runs scored and have an OBP of .326. As a team, the New York Mets are compiling 4.8 runs per game, which has them sitting at 10th in MLB.

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The Mets are sitting with a team ERA of 4.04 this year (18th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,370 hitters. Mets pitchers have given up 148 home runs and 705 total runs (18th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 549 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.89 as a unit this year. New York has surrendered 1,318 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 631 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.50 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.33.

The Mets relievers have earned a save percentage of 58.8% and have entered the game in 168 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 251 runners on the campaign with 34.7% of them earned a run for their team. Mets bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 171 times as well as having 184 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have sent 528 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season. The bullpen have recorded 99 holds on the year (8th in the league). They have recorded 40 saves this year and have blown 28 out of their 68 save opportunities.

The Minnesota Twins have a tally of 4,221 putouts for the season, as well as 1,441 assists and 79 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .986 which has them ranked 14th in MLB, and they have turned 118 double plays. The Mets have converted 68.7% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 12,663 innings, ranking them 25th in the majors.

Peterson (37-30 career win-loss record) has a FIP of 4.06 and he has faced 2,671 hitters in the major leagues. He has surrendered 593 base knocks (8.6 hits per 9 innings) with 262 free passes. His ERA is 4.12 (285 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.374. Peterson has taken the hill for 622 innings and has totaled 614 punch outs in his career.

The Marlins hold a slugging percentage of .394 and they average 4.40 runs per game (16th in the league). They have put up 268 doubles, while getting a free base 475 times as well as earning 699 runs. Miami has a total of 153 home runs so far this season as well as 667 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,230 occasions (27th in the league) and are sitting with 1,368 hits. The Miami Marlins have compiled an OBP of .315 and a team batting average of .251 this season.

The Marlins hold a team WHIP of 1.305 in addition to having a FIP of 4.35 as a team so far this year. They have a ranking of 22nd in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,357. The Miami pitching staff have conceded 791 runs this year and come in with a team ERA of 4.64 (730 earned runs yielded). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.00 (1,264 strikeouts against 491 walks). They have allowed 197 home runs and they surrender 5.03 runs per 9 innings (26th in MLB).

With 148 save situations, the Marlins have recorded 85 holds and also 22 blown saves. Miami has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 61 save opportunities and they have tallied 39 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 168 times in high leverage situations and on 128 occasions with base runners. Miami relievers hold an inherited score rate of 31.1% out of 183 inherited runners. They rank 14th in MLB with a save rate of 63.9%, and they have sent 505 relief pitchers onto the diamond so far this season.

Out of their 12,747 innings played, the Marlins are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (15th in professional baseball). The Miami Marlins have gotten 104 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in pro baseball). The Marlins have recorded 1,358 assists, 84 errors and have amassed 4,249 putouts so far this season.

Cabrera (24-29 career mark) has a 4.12 earned run average while surrendering 7.3 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.23 and he has gone up against 1,823 batters in his career. He has allowed a total of 195 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.309 and having a FIP of 4.1. So far in his career, Cabrera has conceded 347 base hits while totaling 471 strikeouts in 426 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami (+132)

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