New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+120) Philadelphia (-144)

The Philadelphia Phillies (85-60) will go up against the New York Mets (76-69) at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. The odds on this game have New York at +120 and Philadelphia is sitting at -144. The total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are David Peterson and Jesus Luzardo.

New York has a slugging % of .429 and have struck out 1,170 times, while taking a walk on 514 occasions. They have recorded 670 RBI's as well as 1,220 base knocks for the season, while their average at the plate is at .250. The Mets have hit 241 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 198 baseballs out of the park. They have earned a total of 687 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .329. As a unit, the New York Mets are notching 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in baseball.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.44 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.33. Mets pitchers have given up 131 long balls and also 628 total runs (17th in baseball). New York has given up 1,188 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 562 earned runs. The Mets hold a team earned run average of 3.95 so far this season (15th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,246 hitters. They have walked 511 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 3.88 as a unit so far this season.

The Mets relief pitchers have accumulated a save percentage of 61.3% and stepped onto the hill in 151 save situations. The relievers have inherited 232 runners over the course of the season with 33.6% of them ended up scoring. Mets bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 154 times in addition to having 170 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have dispatched 470 relievers to the mound over the course of the season. The bullpen have 89 holds over the course of the season (8th in the league). They have compiled 38 saves on the campaign and have blown 24 of 62 save opportunities.

The Mets have transformed 69.0% of baseballs in play into outs out of 11,529 innings on the field, which ranks them 23rd in pro baseball. The Minnesota Twins have accounted for 3,843 putouts so far this season, as well as 1,300 assists and 67 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .987 which is 10th in pro baseball, and they have turned 107 double plays.

Peterson (37-29 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.93 while he has gone up against 2,614 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 575 hits (8.5 hits per nine innings) with 256 walks. His ERA is 3.99 (271 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.360. Peterson has taken the mound for 611 innings and has accounted for 604 K's in his pro baseball career.

The Philadelphia Phillies have tallied an OBP of .329 as well as a team batting average of .259 so far this year. They have struck out on 1,171 occasions (20th in MLB) and have tallied 1,278 base knocks. Philadelphia has tallied 181 home runs on the year and 667 runs batted in. The Phillies hold a team slugging % of .426 and they have an average of 4.77 runs per game (9th in baseball). They have hit 239 doubles, while getting a free base 474 times and racking up 692 runs.

The Phillies are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.241 in addition to having a FIP of 3.67 as a staff this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.30 (1,324 strikeouts against 396 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 18th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,200. They have allowed 153 HR's and they relinquish 4.04 runs per 9 innings (5th in MLB). The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 578 runs so far this year while holding a team ERA of 3.79 (541 earned runs allowed).

Philadelphia relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 32.9% out of their 140 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 160 times in high leverage situations and on 95 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 140 save situations, the Phillies have accrued 73 holds in addition to 23 blown saves. They rank 11th in the league with a save percentage of 64.1%, and they have sent 453 relievers to the hill on the season. Philadelphia has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 64 save opportunities and they have converted 41 saves.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 93 double plays and have a fielding rate of .990 (3rd in baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,246 assists, 54 errors and have a total of 3,859 putouts over the course of the season. In their 11,577 innings on the field, the Phillies have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 68.9% (24th in baseball).

During his career, Luzardo has allowed 614 base knocks while he has totaled 749 K's in 673 innings. Luzardo (39-40 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 4.22 earned run average and has conceded 8.2 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 316 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.263 and a FIP of 4.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.17 and he has faced 2,825 batters so far in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+120)

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