New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 7/30/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs San Diego Padres

Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-128) San Diego (+106)

The New York Mets (62-45) are hitting the road to Petco Park on Wednesday where they will compete against the San Diego Padres (58-49). The line on this matchup has New York at -128 while San Diego is priced at +106. The over/under is set at 8.5. The men taking the mound are Clay Holmes and Yu Darvish.

New York has a slugging percentage of .414 and have struck out 857 times, while being walked on 372 occasions. They have accounted for 459 RBI's as well as 865 base knocks this season, and their batting average sits at .243. The Mets have tallied 172 doubles as a squad and have knocked 135 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accumulated 472 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .322. As a team, the New York Mets are recording 4.4 runs per contest, which has them at 14th in MLB.

Get all of our MLB Expert Picks

The Mets are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.54 so far this year (3rd in the league), and they have rung up 915 batters. Mets pitchers have yielded 93 long balls and 418 total runs (5th in MLB). They have walked 386 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.81 as a unit for the season. New York has allowed 854 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) as well as 374 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.37 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.31.

The Mets relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 65.4% and have come into the game in 124 save situations. The relievers have inherited 174 runners this year with 33.9% of those players earned a run for their team. Mets pitchers have come into the game with runners on 116 times in addition to having 134 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have dispatched 346 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have 72 holds on the year (7th in the league). They have tallied 34 saves so far this year and have blown 18 out of their 52 save chances.

The Minnesota Twins have a tally of 2,850 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 969 assists and 49 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .987 which has them ranked 11th in MLB, and have accumulated 84 double plays. The Mets have turned 69.6% of baseballs in play into outs out of 8,550 innings on the field, which ranks them 15th in baseball.

Holmes (33-27 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.58 while he has gone up against 1,937 hitters in the majors. He has surrendered 387 base hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) with 197 free passes. His earned run average is 3.64 (182 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.297. Holmes has thrown 450 frames and has totaled 448 punch outs during his career.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with an on-base percentage of .317 as well as a team batting average of .250 on the season. They have struck out on 754 occasions (28th in MLB) and have recorded 893 hits. San Diego has accounted for 90 HRs over the course of the season and 405 RBIs. The Padres have a team slugging percentage of .379 and they score 4.05 runs per contest (25th in MLB). They have 166 doubles, while taking a walk 336 times and earning 433 runs.

The Padres have a team WHIP of 1.228 and have a FIP of 3.90 as a pitching staff for the season. They have a ranking of 2nd in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 805. The San Diego pitching staff have surrendered 412 runs this year while having a team ERA of 3.60 (378 earned runs yielded). Their K/BB ratio is 8.60 (903 strikeouts against 354 walks). They have allowed 106 home runs and they concede 3.93 runs per 9 innings (4th in MLB).

San Diego relievers have an inherited score percentage of 28.8% out of their 177 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 154 times in high leverage situations and on 127 occasions with runners on. With 126 save situations, the Padres have accrued 74 holds and 13 blown saves. They rank 1st in the league with a save rate of 73.5%, and they have sent 375 relievers onto the diamond for the season. San Diego has called on relievers to enter the contest in 49 save chances and they have come away with 36 saves.

Out of their 8,496 innings played, the Padres have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 71.3% (4th in MLB). The San Diego Padres have turned 80 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .986 (17th in professional baseball). The Padres have recorded 814 assists, 52 errors and have earned 2,832 putouts so far this season.

Darvish (110-91 mark in his career) has earned a 3.63 earned run average while conceding 7.4 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.65 and he has gone up against 7,089 hitters in his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 695 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.143 and having a FIP of 3.6. So far in his career, Darvish has allowed 1,415 hits and he has 2,018 punch outs in 1,722 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (-128)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here