New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/13/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-210) Boston (+172)

The Boston Red Sox (81-66) are hosting the New York Yankees (80-65) at Fenway Park on Saturday. The line on this matchup has the Yankees at -210 and the Red Sox are coming in at +172. The over/under comes in at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Max Fried and Brayan Bello.

New York has a slugging rate of .453 and have struck out 1,292 times, while taking a walk on 564 occasions. They have amassed 725 RBI's in addition to 1,217 base knocks this season, while their team batting average is .248. The Yankees have recorded 228 two-baggers as a team and have hit 246 balls out of the stadium. They have accounted for 752 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .328. As a team, the New York Yankees are notching 5.2 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 1st in MLB.

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They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.27. Yankees pitchers have yielded 157 home runs in addition to 632 runs (16th in baseball). New York has allowed 1,128 base knocks (7.9 per 9 innings) and 575 earned runs. The Yankees have compiled a team earned run average of 4.02 for the season (17th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,286 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 506 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.03 as a squad so far this year.

The Yankees bullpen have a save rate of 63.8% and stepped onto the hill in 147 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 237 base runners on the season with 28.3% of them crossed the plate. Yankees bullpen pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 155 times and also have had 148 appearances in high leverage situations. The Yankees have sent 479 relievers to the mound on the campaign. The relievers have earned 88 holds so far this season (9th in the league). They have recorded 37 saves this year and have blown 21 of their 58 save opportunities.

The New York Mets have earned a total of 3,866 putouts for the season, as well as 1,251 assists and 84 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .984 which has them sitting 24th in baseball, and have 96 double plays. The Yankees have converted 70.4% of balls in play into outs in their 11,598 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting at 10th in baseball.

Fried (89-41 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.02 while he has faced 4,337 hitters during his time in the majors. He has allowed 931 base hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 292 free passes. His earned run average is 3.06 (361 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.154. Fried has taken the mound for 1,060 frames and has totaled 1,026 K's so far in his pro baseball career.

The Red Sox have a SLG% of .425 and they average 4.94 runs per outing (5th in MLB). They have recorded 300 doubles, while taking a walk 470 times and scoring 726 runs. Boston has accounted for 173 home runs for the season to go along with 692 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,293 occasions (3rd in the league) and have tallied 1,284 base hits. The Boston Red Sox have accounted for a team OBP of .324 as well as a team batting average of .254 on the year.

The Boston pitching staff have yielded 619 runs this year while holding an ERA of 3.74 (546 earned runs given up). They have conceded 150 home runs and they allow 4.24 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league). The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.291 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a team for the year. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.30 (1,218 strikeouts vs 479 bases on balls). They are sitting at 20th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,217.

Sitting with 147 save situations, the Red Sox have 78 holds and also 26 blown saves. Boston has had relief pitchers enter the contest in 67 save chances and they have tallied 41 saves. Their relief pitchers have come in 173 times in high leverage situations and on 143 occasions with base runners. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 32.3% out of 195 inherited runners. They are ranked 21st in the league holding a save percentage of 61.2%, and they have dispatched 483 relief pitchers onto the field on the campaign.

Out of their 11,829 innings on the field, the Red Sox have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (22nd in pro baseball). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 119 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .980 (29th in baseball). The Red Sox have accrued 1,335 assists, 105 errors and have amassed 3,943 putouts on the campaign.

So far in his career, Bello has surrendered 531 hits while accumulating 454 punch outs in 528 frames. Bello (39-33 career mark) has a 4.05 earned run average and has allowed 9.0 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 238 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.359 and having a FIP of 4.0. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.43 and he has faced 2,273 hitters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (+172)

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