New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs New York Mets

Date: Friday, July 4, 2025

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+220) New York (-275)

The New York Mets (48-37) welcome the New York Yankees (48-37) at Citi Field on Friday. The moneyline on this contest has the Yankees at +220 and the Mets are at -275. The betting total comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Marcus Stroman and Paul Blackburn.

As a team, the New York Yankees are knocking in 5.1 runs per game, which has them at 4th in baseball. They are sitting with 431 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .336. The Yankees have accrued 146 doubles as a squad and have knocked 128 balls out of the stadium. They have accounted for 412 RBI's and 726 hits over the course of the season, while their team batting average is at .252. New York has a slugging % of .445 and have struck out 757 times, while being walked on 342 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.75 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.19. Yankees pitchers have surrendered 83 home runs and 326 total runs (5th in the league). New York has relinquished 612 base hits (7.3 per 9 innings) and 299 earned runs. The Yankees hold a team ERA of 3.57 on the season (7th in baseball), and they have struck out 774 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 281 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.69 as a unit so far this year.

The Yankees have sent 275 relievers to the mound so far this year. The relievers have inherited 142 runners so far this season and 25.4% of those players ended up scoring. They have compiled 23 saves this year and have blown 9 of their 32 save opportunities. The Yankees bullpen have earned a save percentage of 71.9% and have entered the game in 79 save situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 46 holds on the campaign (20th in baseball). Yankees pitchers have come into the game with runners on 90 times as well as having 83 appearances in high leverage situations.

The New York Mets have 2,261 putouts this year, in addition to 720 assists and 40 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .987 which has them sitting 13th in MLB, and they have turned 51 double plays. The Yankees have converted 71.8% of balls hit into play into outs in their 6,783 innings on the field, which has them sitting 3rd in MLB.

Stroman (88-86 career win-loss record) has a FIP of 3.71 while he has faced 6,164 opposing hitters in the major leagues. He has surrendered 1,439 base hits (8.8 hits per 9 innings) and has 445 free passes. His ERA is 3.77 (616 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.280. Stroman has taken the ball for 1,472 innings and has totaled 1,212 punch outs so far in his career.

The New York Mets are sitting with an OBP of .323 as well as a team batting average of .245 for the season. They have been called out on strikes on 669 occasions (23rd in the league) and have tallied 695 hits. New York has tallied 109 home runs over the course of the season and 359 RBIs. The Mets hold a team SLG% of .417 and they average 4.33 runs per outing (15th in the league). They have hit 135 two-baggers, while getting a free base 294 times as well as putting up 368 runs.

The Mets have a team WHIP of 1.302 with a FIP of 3.61 as a team for the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.80 (738 strikeouts against 314 walks). They are sitting at 9th in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 668. They have relinquished 64 home runs and they yield 3.93 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The New York pitching staff have surrendered 329 runs so far this year while having an ERA of 3.46 (290 earned runs allowed).

With 91 save situations, the Mets have recorded 53 holds in addition to 15 blown saves. New York has called on relievers to take the mound in 38 save chances and they have come away with 23 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 103 times in high leverage situations in addition to 90 occasions with runners on. New York relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 33.8% of 139 inherited runners. They are currently ranked 19th in baseball holding a save percentage of 60.5%, and they have sent 271 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year.

In their 6,786 innings played, the Mets have a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (18th in professional baseball). The New York Mets have turned 69 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .986 (15th in professional baseball). The Mets have accrued 766 assists, 42 errors and have accumulated 2,262 putouts this season.

So far in his MLB career, Blackburn has allowed 500 hits and he has 344 punch outs in 446 frames. He has allowed 247 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.432 and a FIP of 4.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.47 and he has gone up against 1,943 opposing hitters during his MLB career. Blackburn (22-31 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a 4.98 ERA while surrendering 10.1 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-275)

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