New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 10/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+105) Toronto (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) are welcoming the New York Yankees (94-68) at Rogers Centre on Saturday in Game 1 of the ALDS. The moneyline on this contest has the Yankees at +105 while the Blue Jays are priced at -125. The total is 7. The pitchers who are expected to start are Luis Gil and Shane Bieber.

The Yankees have accounted for 255 doubles as a team and have hit 274 balls out of the stadium. New York has a slugging percentage of .455 and have struck out 1,463 times, while being walked on 639 occasions. As a unit, the New York Yankees are recording 5.2 runs per game, which puts them at 1st in MLB. They have amassed 820 runs batted in and 1,371 hits over the course of the season, and their batting average comes in at .251. They have earned 849 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .332.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.59 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.25. Yankees pitchers have conceded 175 long balls and also 685 runs in total (15th in baseball). New York has allowed 1,239 base knocks (7.7 per 9 innings) in addition to 625 earned runs. The Yankees have a team ERA of 3.91 on the season (14th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,440 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 557 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 4.00 as a squad on the season.

Yankees pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 167 times in addition to having 165 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have tallied 100 holds on the year (9th in MLB). The Yankees relievers have a save percentage of 67.2% and stepped onto the hill in 166 save situations. They have compiled 43 saves this season and have not converted 21 of 64 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 255 runners this year with 27.5% of them crossed home plate. The Yankees have sent 533 relievers to the mound over the course of the season.

The New York Mets are sitting with 4,319 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,389 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which is 24th in MLB, and they have turned 105 double plays. The Yankees have turned 70.8% of balls hit into play into outs in their 12,957 innings on the field, which ranks them 6th in baseball.

Gil (20-9 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.44 while he has faced 1,029 opposing batters in the majors. He has surrendered 176 base hits (6.5 hits per nine innings) with 131 free passes. His earned run average is 3.50 (94 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.269. Gil has pitched in 242 frames and has accounted for 255 strikeouts so far in his MLB career.

The Blue Jays hold a slugging % of .427 and they earn 4.93 runs per outing (4th in the league). They have put up 294 two-baggers, while getting a free base 520 times as well as scoring 798 runs. Toronto has 191 home runs over the course of the season to go along with 771 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,099 occasions (29th in baseball) and have earned 1,461 hits. The Toronto Blue Jays are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .333 and a batting average of .265 for the season.

The Blue Jays have a team WHIP of 1.273 with a FIP of 4.27 as a unit this year. They sit at 14th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,313. The Toronto pitching staff have relinquished 721 runs so far this year and come in with a team ERA of 4.18 (668 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio is 8.90 (1,430 strikeouts against 517 free passes). They have relinquished 209 homers and they relinquish 4.51 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league).

Sitting with 168 save situations, the Blue Jays have earned 96 holds and 23 blown saves. Toronto has called on relievers to take the mound in 65 save chances and they have earned 42 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 156 times in high leverage situations in addition to 178 occasions with base runners. Toronto relievers have an inherited score percentage of 27.6% out of 254 inherited base runners. They are ranked 13th in MLB holding a save percentage of 64.6%, and they have dispatched 570 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season.

In 12,942 innings on the field, the Blue Jays have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (14th in MLB). The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten 118 double plays and have a fielding rate of .985 (18th in professional baseball). The Blue Jays have recorded 1,272 assists, 86 errors and have accumulated 4,314 putouts this year.

So far in his career, Bieber has allowed 786 hits while accumulating 995 strikeouts in 883 frames. Bieber (66-34 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.24 ERA while giving up 8.0 hits per nine innings. He has conceded 318 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.111 and a FIP of 3.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.10 and he has faced 3,574 opposing hitters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Toronto (-125)

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