Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 8/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Monday, August 11, 2025

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-160) Cincinnati (+132)

Great American Ball Park is where the Cincinnati Reds (60-56) will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (65-49) on Monday. The moneyline on this game has Philadelphia at -160 while Cincinnati is priced at +132. The over/under comes in at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Aaron Nola and Andrew Abbott.

Philadelphia has a slugging % of .417 and have been called out on strikes 922 times, while being walked on 381 occasions. They have accounted for 512 runs batted in and 988 base knocks this year, while their team batting average sits at .255. The Phillies have hit 184 doubles as a team and have knocked 137 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 535 runs and hold an OBP of .326. As a unit, the Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.7 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 9th in MLB.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 3.35 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.24. Phillies pitchers have conceded 127 home runs and 456 runs in total (6th in the league). Philadelphia has given up 943 base hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 424 earned runs. The Phillies have compiled a team ERA of 3.76 over the course of the season (9th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 1,044 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 312 opposing players and their FIP is 3.71 as a unit on the season.

The Phillies have dispatched 349 relievers to the mound on the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 106 runners for the year with 32.1% of those players crossed the plate. They have earned 29 saves this year and have missed out on 17 out of their 46 chances to save the game. The Phillies relievers have compiled a save rate of 63.0% and have come into the game in 95 save situations. The relievers have 48 holds so far this season (26th in MLB). Phillies pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 74 times as well as having 114 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Philadelphia Phillies have notched a total of 3,046 putouts so far this season, in addition to 987 assists and 42 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .990 which has them ranked 3rd in the majors, and they have turned 75 double plays. The Phillies have turned 69.2% of balls in play into outs out of 9,138 innings, which ranks them 21st in the majors.

Nola has taken the mound for 1,670 frames and has 1,831 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Nola (105-86 win-loss mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.72 and he has faced 6,855 opposing batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.78 (701 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.149. He has surrendered 1,482 base knocks (8.0 hits per nine innings) with 437 walks.

The Cincinnati Reds have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .318 and a batting average of .246 so far this season. They have been rung up on 1,000 occasions (9th in the league) and have notched a total of 956 base hits. Cincinnati has accumulated 117 home runs so far this season to go along with 490 RBIs. The Reds hold a team SLG% of .390 and they earn 4.49 runs per game (12th in baseball). They have 181 doubles, while taking a walk 381 times and earning 521 runs.

The Reds hold a team WHIP of 1.245 and have a FIP of 4.11 as a squad on the year. They are sitting at 6th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 907. The Cincinnati pitching staff have conceded 486 runs over the course of the season while holding a team ERA of 3.89 (443 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio is 8.40 (959 strikeouts vs 368 free passes). They have conceded 131 home runs and they allow 4.27 runs per 9 innings (14th in the league).

With 116 save situations, the Reds have amassed 72 holds and 14 blown saves. Cincinnati has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 42 save opportunities and they have earned 28 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 105 times in high leverage situations in addition to 99 occasions with runners on base. Cincinnati relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 34.0% out of their 156 inherited base runners. They rank 8th in the league with a save percentage of 66.7%, and they have sent 395 relievers onto the field on the year.

Out of their 9,222 innings played, the Reds have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (5th in MLB). The Cincinnati Reds have turned 68 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .985 (20th in MLB). The Reds have racked up 874 assists, 60 errors and have accounted for 3,074 putouts this season.

During his career, Abbott has allowed 322 hits and he has 333 K's in 362 innings. He has conceded 134 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.251 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and he has faced 1,516 hitters during his MLB career. Abbott (26-18 career mark) has earned a 3.33 earned run average and has conceded 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+132)

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