Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 5/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: CLEGuardians.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (+220) Cleveland (-275)

The Philadelphia Phillies (22-15) are hitting the road to Progressive Field on Sunday where they will attempt to beat the Cleveland Guardians (22-15). The moneyline on this game has the Phillies at +220 while the Guardians open at -275. The over/under is 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Zack Wheeler and Luis Ortiz.

The Phillies have compiled 57 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 39 balls out of the stadium. Philadelphia owns a slugging percentage of .406 and have been called out on strikes 291 times, while drawing a walk on 143 occasions. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are notching 4.9 runs per contest, which puts them at 8th in the league. They have accrued 171 RBI's as well as 327 base knocks over the course of the season, while their batting average is sitting at .258. They have earned 181 runs while holding a team OBP of .338.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 3.39 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.28. Phillies pitchers have given up 37 home runs and also 161 runs (15th in MLB). Philadelphia has given up 317 base hits (8.6 per 9 innings) in addition to 143 earned runs. The Phillies have a team ERA of 3.87 this season (14th in baseball), and they have struck out 366 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 108 batters and their FIP sits at 3.45 as a team so far this year.

The Phillies relievers have accumulated a save percentage of 57.9% and have come into the game in 38 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 32 base runners so far this year with 40.6% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Phillies relief pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 24 times and also have had 37 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have sent 121 relief pitchers to the mound over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have earned 18 holds for the year (22nd in the league). They have 11 saves so far this season and have blown 8 of their 19 save opportunities.

The Phillies have turned 67.4% of balls in play into outs in their 2,994 innings, which has them sitting 26th in professional baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have earned 998 putouts on the year, in addition to 323 assists and 15 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .989 which is 5th in the majors, and have earned 27 double plays.

Wheeler has pitched in 1,629 innings and has earned 1,691 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. Wheeler (106-71 career win-loss mark) sits with a FIP of 3.29 and he has gone up against 6,699 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.34 (604 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.150. He has given up 1,407 base knocks (7.8 hits per nine innings) with 466 walks.

The Cleveland Guardians have earned an OBP of .311 in addition to a team batting average of .238 on the campaign. They have struck out on 290 instances (23rd in baseball) and have earned a total of 288 base knocks. Cleveland has knocked in 42 long balls for the season as well as 146 runs batted in. The Guardians have a slugging percentage of .386 and they average 4.24 runs per contest (17th in MLB). They have 50 two-baggers, while walking 122 times as well as scoring 157 runs.

The Cleveland pitching staff have conceded 171 runs on the year and come in with a team ERA of 4.31 (156 earned runs conceded). They have surrendered 42 home runs and they yield 4.72 runs per 9 innings (23rd in the league). The Guardians are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.433 and have a FIP of 4.31 as a squad so far this year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.40 (304 strikeouts vs 141 free passes). They rank 23rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 326.

Cleveland bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 28.6% out of 49 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 41 times in high leverage situations and on 34 occasions with runners on base. With 53 save situations, the Guardians have earned 35 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. They are currently ranked 6th in the league with a save percentage of 72.2%, and they have sent 131 relief pitchers onto the diamond so far this year. Cleveland has had relief pitchers enter the game in 18 save opportunities and they have recorded 13 saves.

The Cleveland Guardians have turned 30 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .979 (28th in baseball). The Guardians have accrued 278 assists, 27 errors and have earned 978 putouts during this campaign. In their 2,934 innings on the diamond, the Guardians hold a defensive efficiency of 67.3% (28th in MLB).

Ortiz (14-16 career record) has a 4.12 earned run average while conceding 8.2 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 1.87 and he has faced 1,190 batters in his career. He has allowed 126 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.341 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.1. In his career, Ortiz has conceded 250 hits while earning 223 strikeouts in 275 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+220)

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