Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 7/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

Date: Friday, July 11, 2025

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-210) San Diego (+172)

The San Diego Padres (48-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (53-38) at Petco Park on Friday. The odds on this game have the Phillies at -210 while the Padres open at +172. The total is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Ranger Suarez and Yu Darvish.

As a unit, the Philadelphia Phillies are earning 4.6 runs per game, which ranks them 11th in the league. They have earned 414 runs scored and have an OBP of .329. The Phillies have tallied 141 two-baggers as a team and have hit 97 balls out of the park. They have compiled 394 runs batted in and 787 base knocks on the season, while their batting average is at .255. Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .404 and have been called out on strikes 722 times, while taking a walk on 314 occasions.

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Their K/BB ratio is 3.20 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.25. Phillies pitchers have surrendered 91 long balls and 361 runs (10th in MLB). Philadelphia has conceded 753 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) as well as 333 earned runs. The Phillies hold a team ERA of 3.70 over the course of the season (9th in the league), and their staff has struck out 841 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 263 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.54 as a team this season.

The Phillies have sent 277 relief pitchers to the mound on the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 83 base runners over the course of the season and 37.3% of those players crossed home plate. They have earned 26 saves this season and have blown 16 of 42 save opportunities. The Phillies bullpen have a save percentage of 61.9% and have come into the game in 83 save situations. The bullpen have earned 40 holds so far this season (26th in baseball). Phillies pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 58 times in addition to having 92 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Phillies have converted 68.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,299 innings on the field, which has them ranked 22nd in professional baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have 2,433 putouts this year, as well as 793 assists and 34 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .990 which ranks 5th in professional baseball, and they have turned 62 double plays.

Suarez has pitched in 681 innings and has accounted for 627 K's in his MLB career. Suarez (48-31 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 3.21 while he has gone up against 2,850 opposing batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.26 (247 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.255. He has conceded 634 base knocks (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 221 walks.

San Diego has a total of 76 home runs this year as well as 341 RBIs. They have recorded 129 two-baggers, while taking a walk 295 times as well as notching 366 runs. The San Diego Padres have compiled an OBP of .316 as well as a batting average of .246 on the season. The Padres have a team slugging percentage of .373 and they score 4.07 runs per game (23rd in MLB). They have been rung up on 639 occasions (28th in the league) and have totaled 737 hits.

The San Diego pitching staff have conceded 357 runs on the year while holding an ERA of 3.69 (326 earned runs relinquished). They have conceded 89 home runs and they surrender 4.04 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Padres have a team WHIP of 1.237 in addition to having a FIP of 3.85 as a team so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.70 (773 strikeouts vs 298 walks). They are currently ranked 4th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 687.

San Diego has had relief pitchers enter the game in 41 save opportunities and they have tallied 30 saves. They rank 3rd in baseball with a save rate of 73.2%, and they have sent 317 relief pitchers to the hill this season. Their relievers have taken the field 123 times in high leverage situations in addition to 104 occasions with base runners. San Diego relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 34.7% out of 144 inherited runners. With 102 save situations, the Padres have recorded 60 holds in addition to 11 blown saves.

The San Diego Padres have turned 62 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in pro baseball). The Padres have 690 assists, 43 errors and have 2,388 putouts for the season. Out of their 7,164 innings played, the Padres hold a efficiency on defense of 70.9% (9th in baseball).

Darvish (110-88 career record) has earned a 3.58 ERA while allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.69 and he has gone up against 7,009 opposing batters in his career. He has surrendered a total of 678 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.136 and having a FIP of 3.5. So far in his pro baseball career, Darvish has given up 1,394 hits while he has totaled 2,007 K's in 1,706 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Diego (+172)

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