Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 9/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: FanDuel Sports Network South

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+132) Atlanta (-160)

Truist Park is where the Atlanta Braves (75-84) will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (69-90) on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has Pittsburgh at +132 while Atlanta is at -160. The total is set at 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Johan Oviedo and Charlie Morton.

Pittsburgh has a slugging percentage of .349 and have been called out on strikes 1,397 times, while taking a walk on 520 occasions. They have accumulated 549 RBI's as well as 1,214 hits on the season, and their team batting average is at .230. The Pirates have recorded 242 doubles as a squad and have smacked 113 balls out of the stadium. They have a total of 570 runs scored while having a team OBP of .304. As a unit, the Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 3.6 runs per game, which has them at 30th in baseball.

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The Pirates hold a team ERA of 3.79 over the course of the season (7th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,286 hitters. Pirates pitchers have surrendered 150 home runs and also 637 total runs (6th in MLB). They have walked 464 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.85 as a squad for the year. Pittsburgh has yielded 1,248 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 591 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.77 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.22.

The Pirates bullpen have a save rate of 57.4% and stepped onto the hill in 135 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 216 runners for the year with 35.6% of those players earned a run for their team. Pirates pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 142 times as well as having 157 appearances in high leverage situations. The Pirates have sent 500 relief pitchers to the mound for the season. The bullpen have accumulated 71 holds so far this season (27th in the league). They have compiled 35 saves for the season and have blown 26 of their 61 save opportunities.

The Pirates have turned 70.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,642 innings on the field, which has them ranked 8th in the majors. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4,214 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,316 assists and 76 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .986 which has them ranked 11th in the majors, and they have turned 116 double plays.

Oviedo has thrown 355 innings and has racked up 318 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Oviedo (15-25 career win-loss record) holds a FIP of 4.19 while he has gone up against 1,574 opposing hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 4.26 (168 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.382. He has given up 318 hits (8.1 hits per nine innings) and has 173 free passes.

The Braves hold a slugging percentage of .400 and they are recording 4.50 runs per outing (13th in the league). They have put up 238 doubles, while walking 566 times and recording 716 runs. Atlanta has accumulated 187 home runs so far this year to go along with 694 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,343 occasions (13th in baseball) and have accounted for 1,330 base hits. The Atlanta Braves have compiled an on-base percentage of .321 in addition to a team batting average of .246 for the season.

The Braves are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.303 with a FIP of 4.20 as a pitching staff this year. They rank 18th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 1,318. The Atlanta pitching staff have given up 721 runs so far this season while holding a team ERA of 4.36 (683 earned runs relinquished). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.90 (1,391 strikeouts against 520 bases on balls). They have conceded 193 dingers and they allow 4.60 runs per 9 innings (20th in MLB).

With 126 save situations, the Braves have tallied 72 holds in addition to 21 blown saves. Atlanta has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 54 save opportunities and they have come away with 33 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 167 times in high leverage situations and on 157 occasions with runners on. Atlanta relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 39.0% of 213 inherited base runners. They sit at 20th in MLB with a save rate of 61.1%, and they have sent 510 relievers onto the diamond this season.

The Atlanta Braves have turned 105 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .991 (2nd in pro baseball). The Braves have accrued 1,339 assists, 53 errors and have amassed 4,233 putouts on the campaign. In 12,699 innings on the field, the Braves have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.8% (18th in pro baseball).

In his pro baseball career, Morton has conceded 168 hits while he has accumulated 155 punch outs in 163 innings pitched. Morton (9-12 career record) has a 5.51 ERA while allowing 9.3 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 100 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.494 and having a FIP of 5.4. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.04 and he has faced 740 hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Atlanta (-160) and under 8 runs

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