Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 8/31/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+126) Boston (-152)

The Boston Red Sox (75-60) will try to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-76) at Fenway Park on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has the Pirates at +126 while the Red Sox are opening at -152. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Mitch Keller and Lucas Giolito.

The Pirates have compiled 199 doubles as a unit and have knocked 98 baseballs out of the park. Pittsburgh owns a slugging percentage of .352 and have struck out 1,169 times, while taking a walk on 433 occasions. As a squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates are knocking in 3.6 runs per game, which has them at 30th in baseball. They have tallied 467 runs batted in and 1,043 hits for the year, and their average at the plate sits at .233. They have a total of 484 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .305.

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The Pirates have compiled a team ERA of 3.93 on the campaign (14th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,063 batters. Pirates pitchers have given up 129 long balls in addition to 552 runs (9th in baseball). They have walked 388 batters and their FIP is 3.88 as a squad so far this year. Pittsburgh has relinquished 1,057 base knocks (8.0 per 9 innings) and also 520 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.74 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.21.

The Pirates bullpen have recorded a save rate of 58.0% and stepped onto the hill in 110 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 187 base runners over the course of the season with 36.9% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Pirates relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 120 times in addition to having 130 appearances in high leverage situations. The Pirates have dispatched 417 relief pitchers to the mound on the season. The relief pitchers have tallied 58 holds over the course of the season (25th in baseball). They have 29 saves this season and have blown 21 out of their 50 chances to get a save.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have amassed 3,548 putouts on the year, in addition to 1,108 assists and 63 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .987 which puts them in 13th in the majors, and have earned 95 double plays. The Pirates have converted 71.0% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 10,644 innings, which has them sitting 6th in the majors.

Keller (42-62 career mark) sits with a FIP of 4.48 while he has gone up against 3,713 batters in the major leagues. He has allowed 894 hits (9.4 hits per 9 innings) with 291 free passes. His ERA is 4.55 (431 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.391. Keller has thrown 852 frames and has accumulated 812 strikeouts in his career.

Boston is sitting with 163 home runs on the campaign to go along with 638 runs batted in. They have hit 271 doubles, while walking 441 times and putting up 668 runs. The Boston Red Sox are sitting with an on-base percentage of .323 as well as a team batting average of .252 for the season. The Red Sox hold a slugging % of .425 and they are scoring 4.95 runs per contest (5th in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 1,192 occasions (4th in the league) and have tallied 1,167 base hits.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.279 with a FIP of 4.00 as a staff for the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.30 (1,116 strikeouts against 439 walks). They are sitting at 17th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,107. They have relinquished 137 home runs and they allow 4.17 runs per 9 innings (9th in baseball). The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 560 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.66 (491 earned runs allowed).

Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 30.9% out of their 178 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 165 times in high leverage situations and also on 134 occasions with runners on. With 135 save situations, the Red Sox have accrued 72 holds in addition to 23 blown saves. They are ranked 19th in the league holding a save rate of 62.3%, and they have dispatched 439 relievers to the mound on the season. Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 61 save opportunities and they have walked away with 38 saves.

Out of their 10,800 innings on the field, the Red Sox have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (21st in the majors). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 107 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .980 (29th in baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 1,228 assists, 101 errors and have a total of 3,600 putouts for the year.

During his MLB career, Giolito has given up 994 base hits while he has tallied 1,176 K's in 1,132 innings pitched. Giolito (70-64 win-loss mark in his career) holds a 4.33 earned run average while giving up 7.9 hits per nine innings. He has conceded a total of 545 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.251 and a FIP of 4.3. His K/BB ratio is 2.78 and he has gone up against 4,755 batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Boston (-152)

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