Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 5/17/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+106) Philadelphia (-128)

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-18) will compete against the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29) at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has Pittsburgh at +106 while Philadelphia is priced at -128. The total has been set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound will be Carmen Mlodzinski and Zack Wheeler.

The Pirates have tallied 50 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 31 baseballs out of the stadium. Pittsburgh is slugging .327 and have been rung up 381 times, while drawing a walk on 156 occasions. As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates are knocking in 3.1 runs per game, which ranks them 30th in baseball. They have accumulated 132 RBI's and 320 base knocks over the course of the season, while their batting average is .219. They have notched a total of 135 runs and have an on-base percentage of .300.

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The Pirates have a team ERA of 4.01 on the year (18th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 324 batters. Pirates pitchers have conceded 38 home runs and 189 runs in total (17th in MLB). They have walked 141 opposing batters and their FIP is 3.93 as a team on the year. Pittsburgh has given up 354 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) as well as 175 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.30 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.26.

Pirates pitchers have entered the game with runners on 44 times in addition to having 47 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have earned 23 holds on the season (19th in the league). The Pirates relievers have a save percentage of 50.0% and stepped onto the hill in 40 save situations. They have earned 8 saves so far this season and have blown 8 out of their 16 save chances. The relievers have inherited 68 base runners over the course of the season with 33.8% of them crossed the plate. The Pirates have sent 147 relief pitchers to the mound on the year.

The Pirates have converted 70.5% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 3,537 innings, which has them sitting 12th in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates have amassed 1,179 putouts thus far, in addition to 394 assists and 28 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which is 22nd in the majors, and have a total of 41 double plays.

Mlodzinski has taken the hill for 122 frames and has totaled 106 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 3.61 (49 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.325. He has given up 114 base hits (8.4 hits per 9 innings) and has 48 free passes. Mlodzinski (9-11 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 3.55 while he has gone up against 523 hitters in the majors.

Philadelphia has tallied 45 home runs on the season and 192 runs batted in. They have recorded 65 two-baggers, while taking a walk 162 times and racking up 202 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies are sitting with an OBP of .335 as well as a batting average of .257 on the campaign. The Phillies have a slugging percentage of .402 and they score 4.70 runs per outing (10th in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 345 occasions (20th in MLB) and have tallied 378 base knocks.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.264 and have a FIP of 3.56 as a team for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.70 (417 strikeouts vs 124 bases on balls). They come in at 19th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 363. They have relinquished 45 dingers and they relinquish 4.35 runs per 9 innings (16th in the league). The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 186 runs on the season while holding a team ERA of 3.90 (167 earned runs relinquished).

Sitting with 43 save situations, the Phillies have amassed 21 holds in addition to 8 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 21 save chances and they have earned 13 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 42 times in high leverage situations and on 27 occasions with runners on. Philadelphia bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 38.5% out of 39 inherited base runners. They are currently ranked 17th in MLB with a save rate of 61.9%, and they have sent 138 relievers to the hill so far this season.

Out of their 3,471 innings on the field, the Phillies have earned a defensive efficiency of 68.0% (23rd in pro baseball). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 30 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .990 (4th in baseball). The Phillies have recorded 369 assists, 16 errors and have a total of 1,157 putouts this year.

Wheeler (107-71 career mark) holds a 3.32 earned run average and has conceded 7.8 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.63 and he has gone up against 6,724 batters during his career. He has given up 604 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.148 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.3. In his career, Wheeler has surrendered 1,410 base hits while he has totaled 1,699 punch outs in 1,636 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-128)

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