San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 9/30/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (+125) Chicago (-150)

In Game 1 of the NLWC, the San Diego Padres (90-72) are headed to Wrigley Field on Tuesday where they will meet the Chicago Cubs (92-70). The moneyline on this matchup has the Padres at +100and the Cubs open at -108. The betting total is set at 7. The pitchers taking the mound will be Nick Pivetta and Shota Imanaga.

As a squad, the San Diego Padres are earning 4.3 runs per game, which ranks them 18th in the league. They have racked up 702 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .321. The Padres have accumulated 254 doubles as a unit and have hit 152 baseballs out of the stadium. They have recorded 663 runs batted in and 1,369 hits so far this year, while their average at the plate comes in at .252. San Diego is slugging .390 and have struck out 1,161 times, while drawing a walk on 510 occasions.

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The Padres are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.63 this season (3rd in baseball), and the staff has struck out 1,425 hitters. Padres pitchers have conceded 178 home runs and 621 runs in total (2nd in MLB). They have walked 535 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.02 as a squad this season. San Diego has relinquished 1,197 base hits (7.5 per 9 innings) and 578 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.66 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.21.

The Padres have dispatched 577 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 263 base runners on the season with 29.3% of them crossed home plate. They have earned 49 saves over the course of the season and have not converted 16 of their 65 save opportunities. The Padres relievers have a save rate of 75.4% and have come into the game in 174 save situations. The relief pitchers have accumulated 104 holds on the campaign (7th in the league). Padres pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 185 times and also have had 209 appearances in high leverage situations.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with 4,299 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,234 assists and 74 errors. Their fielding rate is at .987 which puts them in 9th in pro baseball, and have a total of 117 double plays. The Padres have turned 71.7% of balls in play into outs out of 12,897 innings, which has them sitting 3rd in professional baseball.

Pivetta has pitched in 1,210 frames and has earned 1,329 punch outs so far in his MLB career. Pivetta (69-76 career win-loss mark) has a FIP of 4.41 while he has gone up against 5,107 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.48 (602 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.267. He has given up 1,107 hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has 427 free passes.

The Chicago Cubs have accumulated an on-base percentage of .320 as well as a batting average of .249 on the campaign. They have been rung up on 1,277 occasions (25th in MLB) and have recorded 1,371 hits. Chicago has accounted for 223 long balls this year and 771 RBIs. The Cubs hold a team SLG% of .430 and they score 4.90 runs per contest (5th in baseball). They have tallied 267 doubles, while taking a walk 554 times as well as scoring 793 runs.

The Chicago pitching staff have conceded 649 runs this season while holding a team ERA of 3.79 (605 earned runs conceded). They have surrendered 202 HR's and they concede 4.07 runs per 9 innings (8th in baseball). The Cubs have a team WHIP of 1.177 with a FIP of 4.16 as a unit for the season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.90 (1,265 strikeouts against 405 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 10th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,284.

With 177 save situations, the Cubs have accumulated 110 holds in addition to 20 blown saves. Chicago has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 64 save chances and they have come away with 44 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 158 times in high leverage situations and on 101 occasions with runners on base. Chicago relievers have an inherited score percentage of 33.8% out of their 142 inherited runners. They are ranked 4th in baseball with a save rate of 68.8%, and they have sent 523 relievers to the hill on the season.

The Chicago Cubs have gotten 117 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in baseball). The Cubs have accrued 1,342 assists, 61 errors and are sitting with 4,305 putouts this season. Out of their 12,915 innings on the field, the Cubs have earned a efficiency on defense of 71.9% (2nd in professional baseball).

In his MLB career, Imanaga has surrendered 266 hits while he has accumulated 291 strikeouts in 317 frames. Imanaga (24-11 career win-loss record) has earned a 3.29 ERA and has given up 7.5 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded a total of 116 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.009 and having a FIP of 3.2. His K/BB ratio is 5.39 and he has gone up against 1,261 hitters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Chicago (-150)

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