San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 7/21/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday, July 21, 2025

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Florida

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-182) Miami (+150)

The San Diego Padres (52-44) are traveling to loanDepot park on Monday where they will play the Miami Marlins (44-51). The odds on this game have San Diego at -182 and Miami is priced at +150. The over/under is set at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Randy Vasquez and Eury Perez.

As a squad, the San Diego Padres are scoring 4.0 runs per contest, which is 25th in the league. They have racked up 383 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .315. The Padres have earned 136 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 83 balls out of the park. They have compiled 358 runs batted in as well as 781 base knocks so far this season, and their team batting average is .246. San Diego has a slugging percentage of .374 and have been rung up 676 times, while drawing a walk on 311 occasions.

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The Padres have an earned run average of 3.64 this year (6th in the league), and the staff has rung up 827 batters. Padres pitchers have allowed 95 home runs in addition to 376 runs (6th in the league). They have walked 324 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.87 as a unit this year. San Diego has allowed 727 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and also 344 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.55 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.24.

The Padres bullpen have a save percentage of 75.6% and have come into the game in 113 save situations. The relievers have inherited 159 runners on the year with 32.1% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Padres pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 114 times and also have had 140 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 340 relievers to the hill so far this year. The relief pitchers have notched 66 holds on the year (5th in the league). They have accumulated 34 saves so far this season and have blown 11 of their 45 save opportunities.

The San Diego Padres have notched a total of 2,550 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 724 assists and 48 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .986 which has them ranked 20th in MLB, and they have turned 65 double plays. The Padres have converted 71.1% of balls in play into outs out of 7,650 innings, which has them ranked 7th in pro baseball.

Vasquez (9-13 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.06 and he has faced 1,009 batters during his time in the majors. He has given up 235 base hits (9.2 hits per nine innings) and has had 93 free passes. His ERA is 4.12 (105 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.430. Vasquez has pitched in 229 innings and has accounted for 145 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career.

The Marlins hold a team slugging percentage of .392 and they score 4.29 runs per outing (18th in the league). They have recorded 159 doubles, while walking 281 times as well as earning 408 runs. Miami has accounted for 87 home runs this year to go along with 392 RBIs. They have been rung up on 759 instances (23rd in the league) and have notched a total of 825 hits. The Miami Marlins have an OBP of .315 and a batting average of .254 on the year.

The Marlins have a WHIP of 1.330 in addition to having a FIP of 4.12 as a squad over the course of the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.00 (753 strikeouts against 303 walks). They are sitting at 23rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 821. They have surrendered 104 dingers and they relinquish 4.93 runs per 9 innings (24th in the league). The Miami pitching staff have allowed 463 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 4.58 (430 earned runs relinquished).

Miami relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 31.3% out of 115 inherited runners. Their relievers have come in 101 times in high leverage situations and on 79 occasions with base runners. With 87 save situations, the Marlins have accumulated 50 holds in addition to 14 blown saves. They are ranked 18th in the league with a save rate of 61.1%, and they have sent 303 bullpen pitchers to the mound this year. Miami has had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 36 save opportunities and they have walked away with 22 saves.

The Miami Marlins have gotten 65 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .986 (18th in pro baseball). The Marlins have racked up 831 assists, 48 errors and have notched a total of 2,535 putouts for the year. Out of their 7,605 innings played, the Marlins have a efficiency on defense of 69.2% (20th in pro baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Perez has given up 92 base knocks while he has tallied 143 K's in 125 innings. He has conceded a total of 44 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.071 and a FIP of 3.1. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.40 and he has gone up against 506 opposing batters so far in his career. Perez (8-8 career mark) has a 3.17 earned run average and has given up 6.6 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+150)

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