San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 5/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Sunday, May 4, 2025

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-132) Pittsburgh (+110)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-20) will try to defeat the San Diego Padres (19-11) at PNC Park on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has San Diego at -132 while Pittsburgh is at +110. The over/under has been set at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney.

San Diego has a slugging % of .391 and have been called out on strikes 202 times, while drawing a walk on 96 occasions. They have amassed 109 runs batted in and 252 base knocks this season, and their team batting average is .259. The Padres have recorded 44 doubles as a team and have hit 26 balls out of the park. They have a total of 118 runs while holding a team OBP of .327. As a unit, the San Diego Padres are compiling 3.9 runs/g, which puts them at 19th in MLB.

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The Padres have compiled a team ERA of 2.86 for the season (2nd in the league), and their staff has struck out 267 hitters. Padres pitchers have given up 24 long balls and 90 total runs (1st in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 92 batters and their FIP sits at 3.37 as a unit for the season. San Diego has surrendered 204 base hits (7.0 per 9 innings) and also 84 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.90 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.12.

The Padres relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 92.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 39 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 34 base runners for the season and 29.4% of them ended up scoring. Padres relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 22 times and also have had 37 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 101 relief pitchers to the hill on the season. The relief pitchers have a total of 25 holds for the season (6th in baseball). They have accumulated 13 saves on the campaign and have missed out on 1 out of their 14 chances to get a save.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with 792 putouts for the season, in addition to 206 assists and 14 errors. Their fielding rate is at .986 which has them sitting 15th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 19 double plays. The Padres have turned 72.5% of balls in play into outs out of 2,376 innings on the field, ranking them 5th in pro baseball.

Pivetta has pitched in 1,064 frames and is sitting with 1,178 strikeouts so far in his career. Pivetta (61-72 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 4.59 while he has gone up against 4,519 batters in the majors. His ERA is 4.66 (551 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.301. He has given up 999 base hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has had 385 walks.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a team on-base percentage of .303 and a team batting average of .224 on the campaign. They have been rung up on 276 occasions (7th in the league) and have earned 238 base hits. Pittsburgh has compiled 24 home runs on the campaign as well as 107 runs batted in. The Pirates have a team slugging % of .339 and they average 3.41 runs per contest (27th in MLB). They have hit 40 two-baggers, while getting a free base 112 times as well as scoring 109 runs.

The Pirates have a team WHIP of 1.250 and have a FIP of 3.94 as a staff on the campaign. They rank 20th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 260. The Pittsburgh pitching staff have yielded 147 runs on the season while holding a team ERA of 4.23 (135 earned runs given up). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.40 (237 strikeouts vs 99 walks). They have allowed 30 long balls and they concede 4.61 runs per 9 innings (20th in the league).

Pittsburgh relievers have an inherited score percentage of 34.0% of 50 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 36 times in high leverage situations and on 32 occasions with base runners. With 31 save situations, the Pirates have amassed 19 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. They sit at 20th in MLB with a save percentage of 58.3%, and they have dispatched 107 relief pitchers onto the diamond so far this season. Pittsburgh has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 12 save opportunities and they have earned 7 saves.

Out of their 2,586 innings on the field, the Pirates hold a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (14th in MLB). The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten 28 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .980 (26th in baseball). The Pirates have accrued 293 assists, 24 errors and have earned 862 putouts during this campaign.

Heaney (53-64 career win-loss record) holds a 4.39 earned run average and has surrendered 8.6 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.57 and he has gone up against 4,468 batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has allowed 512 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.252 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.3. So far in his career, Heaney has allowed 1,007 hits and he has 1,101 K's in 1,050 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+110)

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