Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 9/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Friday, September 12, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+126) Chicago (-152)

The Tampa Bay Rays (72-73) are headed to Wrigley Field on Friday where they will try to defeat the Chicago Cubs (83-63). The moneyline on this game has the Rays at +126 while the Cubs are at -152. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The men taking the mound are Shane Baz and Matthew Boyd.

Tampa Bay has a slugging % of .405 and have been called out on strikes 1,240 times, while being walked on 416 occasions. They have accumulated 622 runs batted in and 1,232 base knocks for the year, and their team batting average comes in at .252. The Rays have tallied 219 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 166 balls out of the stadium. They have racked up 654 runs while holding a team OBP of .314. As a unit, the Tampa Bay Rays are notching 4.5 runs per game, which has them sitting at 13th in baseball.

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The Rays are sitting with a team ERA of 3.87 so far this year (13th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,271 batters. Rays pitchers have allowed 187 home runs and 599 runs in total (9th in the league). They have walked 415 batters and their FIP sits at 4.17 as a unit this season. Tampa Bay has given up 1,134 hits (7.9 per 9 innings) in addition to 552 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 3.06 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.21.

Rays bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 101 times in addition to having 139 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen are sitting with 81 holds this season (16th in MLB). The Rays relievers have earned a save percentage of 56.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 141 save situations. They have recorded 33 saves this year and have blown 25 of 58 save chances. The relievers have inherited 149 runners on the season and 31.5% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The Rays have sent 463 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3,853 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,268 assists and 69 errors. Their fielding rate is at .987 which ranks 12th in pro baseball, and they have turned 131 double plays. The Rays have converted 70.8% of balls hit into play into outs in their 11,559 innings on the field, which has them sitting 6th in baseball.

Baz has pitched in 274 frames and is sitting with 281 punch outs so far in his MLB career. Baz (16-16 career mark) has earned a FIP of 4.20 and he has faced 1,147 hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 4.27 (130 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.225. He has given up 240 base hits (7.9 hits per nine innings) and has had 96 walks.

The Chicago Cubs have earned an OBP of .319 as well as a batting average of .248 over the course of the season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,140 occasions (26th in MLB) and have tallied 1,230 hits. Chicago has accounted for 196 home runs for the year to go along with 696 RBIs. The Cubs hold a team slugging percentage of .425 and they average 4.88 runs per outing (8th in the league). They have put up 239 two-baggers, while taking a walk 500 times as well as scoring 713 runs.

The Chicago pitching staff have allowed 593 runs for the season while having a team ERA of 3.86 (555 earned runs given up). They have allowed 179 home runs and they yield 4.12 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The Cubs are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.191 in addition to having a FIP of 4.18 as a staff for the year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 7.80 (1,119 strikeouts against 370 free passes). They come in at 11th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,172.

Chicago has called on relievers to take the mound in 55 save chances and they have come away with 38 saves. They rank 4th in MLB with a save percentage of 69.1%, and they have sent 474 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 146 times in high leverage situations in addition to 94 occasions with base runners. Chicago bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 32.8% out of their 131 inherited runners. Sitting with 157 save situations, the Cubs have earned 99 holds in addition to 17 blown saves.

The Chicago Cubs have gotten 113 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in the majors). The Cubs have accrued 1,225 assists, 57 errors and have a tally of 3,885 putouts for the season. In their 11,655 innings played, the Cubs have a defensive efficiency of 71.6% (3rd in baseball).

Boyd (58-77 career record) holds a 4.55 ERA while allowing 8.7 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.13 and he has gone up against 4,554 opposing hitters in his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 543 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.275 and a FIP of 4.5. So far in his pro baseball career, Boyd has allowed 1,039 base hits and he has 1,036 strikeouts in 1,074 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+126)

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