Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 6/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (-152) Boston (+126)

The Boston Red Sox (40-42) host the Toronto Blue Jays (42-37) at Fenway Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has the Blue Jays at -152 and the Red Sox are coming in at +126. The total has been set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound will be Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito.

Toronto is slugging .400 and have been called out on strikes 534 times, while taking a walk on 256 occasions. They have 330 runs batted in as well as 685 hits on the year, and their average at the plate is sitting at .256. The Blue Jays have accrued 134 two-baggers as a team and have hit 81 balls out of the stadium. They are sitting with 344 runs scored while having a team OBP of .326. As a team, the Toronto Blue Jays are putting up 4.4 runs per game, which has them at 14th in MLB.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.79 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.25. Blue Jays pitchers have yielded 107 long balls in addition to 351 total runs (19th in the league). Toronto has given up 629 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 328 earned runs. The Blue Jays have compiled a team earned run average of 4.20 for the year (21st in the league), and the staff has struck out 706 batters. They have walked 253 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.28 as a unit on the year.

The Blue Jays have dispatched 271 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have inherited 111 runners over the course of the season and 29.7% of those runners ended up scoring. They have earned 23 saves so far this season and have blown 13 of 36 chances to save the game. The Blue Jays bullpen have a save rate of 63.9% and have come into the game in 78 save situations. The relievers have tallied 41 holds for the season (22nd in the league). Blue Jays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 80 times in addition to having 73 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Blue Jays have converted 70.6% of balls in play into outs out of 6,333 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 10th in professional baseball. The Toronto Blue Jays have a tally of 2,111 putouts for the season, in addition to 609 assists and 37 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .987 which is 14th in the majors, and have a total of 55 double plays.

Bassitt has pitched in 1,200 innings and has earned 1,115 strikeouts during his career. His ERA is 3.59 (479 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.236. He has conceded 1,105 base hits (8.3 hits per nine innings) and has 378 free passes. Bassitt (79-59 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.54 while he has faced 5,067 hitters in the majors.

The Red Sox have a SLG% of .412 and they have an average of 4.65 runs per contest (9th in MLB). They have hit 149 doubles, while taking a walk 275 times as well as putting up 381 runs. Boston has knocked in 98 home runs so far this season as well as 363 runs batted in. They have struck out on 766 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have notched a total of 697 hits. The Boston Red Sox have an on-base percentage of .320 and a batting average of .247 so far this year.

The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.324 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.91 as a squad on the year. They are currently ranked 22nd in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 690. The Boston pitching staff have allowed 374 runs for the year while holding an ERA of 3.97 (324 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.60 (700 strikeouts vs 282 bases on balls). They have yielded 82 homers and they allow 4.58 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB).

Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 39 save opportunities and they have tallied 22 saves. They rank 23rd in baseball holding a save percentage of 56.4%, and they have sent 270 relievers to the mound on the year. Their relief pitchers have come in 110 times in high leverage situations and also on 83 occasions with runners on. Boston relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 33.0% of 109 inherited base runners. With 83 save situations, the Red Sox have accrued 42 holds and 17 blown saves.

Out of their 6,612 innings played, the Red Sox have a defensive efficiency of 68.1% (26th in the majors). The Boston Red Sox have turned 72 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .977 (29th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 748 assists, 69 errors and have a total of 2,204 putouts so far this year.

So far in his career, Giolito has allowed 940 base knocks while tallying 1,123 strikeouts in 1,064 innings pitched. Giolito (64-63 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 4.44 ERA and has given up 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 525 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.261 and having a FIP of 4.4. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.79 and he has gone up against 4,477 opposing batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Boston (+126)

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