Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, 10/16/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025

Location: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (+110) Seattle (-130)

T-Mobile Park is the location where the Seattle Mariners (90-72) will take on the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) on Thursday in Game 4 of the ALCS. The odds on this game have Toronto at +110 and Seattle is sitting at -130. The total is set at 7.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Max Scherzer and Luis Castillo.

As a squad, the Toronto Blue Jays are knocking in 4.9 runs per game, which ranks them 4th in the league. They have a total of 798 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .333. The Blue Jays have hit 294 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 191 balls out of the park. They have 771 RBI's and 1,461 hits over the course of the season, and their team batting average is sitting at .265. Toronto has a slugging % of .427 and have struck out 1,099 times, while taking a walk on 520 occasions.

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They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.77 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.27. Blue Jays pitchers have allowed 209 home runs in addition to 721 total runs (19th in baseball). Toronto has given up 1,313 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 668 earned runs. The Blue Jays have compiled a team earned run average of 4.18 this year (19th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,430 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 517 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.27 as a squad on the season.

Blue Jays pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 178 times as well as having 156 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have earned 96 holds on the season (10th in baseball). The Blue Jays relief pitchers have a save percentage of 64.6% and have come into the game in 168 save situations. They have accumulated 42 saves on the campaign and have blown 23 out of their 65 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 254 runners this season and 27.6% of them earned a run for their team. The Blue Jays have dispatched 570 relievers to the hill on the campaign.

The Blue Jays have transformed 70.0% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,942 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 14th in professional baseball. The Toronto Blue Jays have a tally of 4,314 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,272 assists and 86 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .985 which ranks 18th in MLB, and have a total of 118 double plays.

Scherzer has taken the ball for 2,963 innings and has earned 3,489 K's in his MLB career. His earned run average is 3.22 (1,059 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.084. He has conceded 2,433 hits (7.4 hits per nine innings) with 779 free passes. Scherzer (221-117 mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.17 while going up against 11,987 opposing batters in the major leagues.

The Mariners hold a team slugging percentage of .420 and they are recording 4.73 runs per contest (10th in MLB). They have hit 234 two-baggers, while getting a free base 544 times as well as earning 766 runs. Seattle has accumulated 238 home runs for the season to go along with 734 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 1,446 instances (6th in baseball) and are sitting with 1,345 hits. The Seattle Mariners hold an OBP of .320 and a team batting average of .244 on the season.

The Seattle pitching staff have relinquished 694 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.87 (629 earned runs allowed). They have given up 192 HR's and they allow 4.27 runs per 9 innings (13th in MLB). The Mariners hold a team WHIP of 1.221 in addition to having a FIP of 3.98 as a unit so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.80 (1,426 strikeouts against 454 bases on balls). They are sitting at 15th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,331.

With 159 save situations, the Mariners have compiled 90 holds and also 26 blown saves. Seattle has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 69 save chances and they have walked away with 43 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 216 times in high leverage situations in addition to 132 occasions with runners on base. Seattle relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 25.2% out of their 147 inherited runners. They are ranked 19th in MLB with a save percentage of 62.3%, and they have dispatched 550 relief pitchers onto the field for the year.

In their 13,164 innings on the field, the Mariners have a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (12th in professional baseball). The Seattle Mariners have turned 118 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in MLB). The Mariners have recorded 1,355 assists, 69 errors and have a tally of 4,388 putouts so far this year.

During his career, Castillo has surrendered 1,208 base knocks while he has totaled 1,493 strikeouts in 1,410 frames. Castillo (84-84 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 3.55 ERA while conceding 7.7 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 557 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.178 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.30 and he has faced 5,824 hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Toronto (+110)

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