Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 5/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (+110) Chicago (-130)

Wrigley Field is the site where the Chicago Cubs (19-12) will try to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks (16-14) on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has the Diamondbacks at +110 while the Cubs are opening at -130. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Merrill Kelly and Matthew Boyd.

As a team, the Arizona Diamondbacks are notching 4.7 runs per outing, which ranks them 11th in baseball. They have 141 runs scored and hold an OBP of .308. The Diamondbacks have accounted for 55 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 31 balls out of the park. They have 135 RBI's as well as 250 base knocks for the year, while their team batting average sits at .250. Arizona is slugging .418 and have been called out on strikes 240 times, while being walked on 81 occasions.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.18 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.39. Diamondbacks pitchers have yielded 40 long balls in addition to 165 runs (28th in the league). Arizona has allowed 267 base hits (9.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 147 earned runs. The Diamondbacks have an earned run average of 4.99 on the season (28th in the league), and their staff has struck out 222 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 102 opposing players and their FIP is 4.67 as a team this year.

The Diamondbacks have sent 109 relievers to the mound on the campaign. The relief pitchers have inherited 42 base runners so far this year with 31.0% of those runners crossing home plate. The bullpen have racked up 25 holds so far this season (1st in the league). Diamondbacks pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 29 times in addition to having 45 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 9 saves on the season and have blown 6 of 15 save chances. The Diamondbacks bullpen have accumulated a save percentage of 60.0% and have come into the game in 41 save situations.

The Diamondbacks have turned 69.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of 2,388 innings, which has them sitting 17th in baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks have accounted for 796 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 271 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .983 which has them ranked 25th in MLB, and have a total of 20 double plays.

Kelly has thrown 1,022 innings and has accounted for 920 K's in his career. Kelly (66-55 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.79 while he has gone up against 4,217 hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.85 (437 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.213. He has allowed 928 base knocks (8.2 hits per 9 innings) and has 312 walks.

The Chicago Cubs have compiled an on-base percentage of .353 in addition to a team batting average of .261 over the course of the season. They have been rung up on 257 occasions (17th in baseball) and are sitting with 279 base hits. Chicago has accounted for 42 home runs so far this season and 154 RBIs. The Cubs have a slugging percentage of .427 and they tally 5.45 runs per contest (3rd in MLB). They have 46 doubles, while taking a walk 141 times and racking up 169 runs.

The Chicago pitching staff have conceded 134 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.01 (123 earned runs conceded). They have conceded 36 long balls and they surrender 4.37 runs per 9 innings (11th in the league). The Cubs are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.188 and have a FIP of 4.14 as a unit on the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.20 (251 strikeouts against 94 free passes). They sit at 7th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 234.

They sit at 24th in the league holding a save percentage of 54.5%, and they have dispatched 91 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the campaign. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 29 times in high leverage situations and on 32 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 18 save situations, the Cubs have compiled 6 holds and also 5 blown saves. Chicago has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 11 save chances and they have recorded 6 saves. Chicago relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 31.8% out of 44 inherited runners.

The Chicago Cubs have turned 21 double plays and have a fielding rate of .986 (15th in pro baseball). The Cubs have 272 assists, 16 errors and have 828 putouts so far this year. Out of their 2,484 innings on the field, the Cubs have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 72.3% (4th in MLB).

During his career, Boyd has conceded 1,074 hits while he has totaled 1,071 strikeouts in 1,106 innings. He has given up a total of 567 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.279 and having a FIP of 4.5. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.14 and he has gone up against 4,692 opposing hitters during his MLB career. Boyd (61-78 career mark) has earned a 4.61 ERA while conceding 8.7 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Arizona (+110)

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