Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction, 9/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros

Date: Friday, September 4, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (-128) Houston (+106)

Daikin Park is the location where the Houston Astros (71-69) will meet the Arizona Diamondbacks (74-67) on Friday. The moneyline on this game has the Diamondbacks at -128 and the Astros are opening at +106. The over/under comes in at 9. The men taking the mound are Merrill Kelly and Cristian Javier.

The Diamondbacks have hit 235 doubles as a team and have smacked 138 baseballs out of the park. Arizona is slugging .395 and have struck out 1,024 times, while drawing a walk on 466 occasions. As a squad, the Arizona Diamondbacks are notching 4.5 runs per game, which is 17th in MLB. They have amassed 599 runs batted in as well as 1,145 hits over the course of the season, while their batting average is at .243. They are sitting with 628 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .315.

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The Diamondbacks have an earned run average of 4.16 so far this year (15th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 963 batters. Diamondbacks pitchers have conceded 160 long balls and 629 runs in total (18th in MLB). They have walked 423 opposing players and their FIP is 4.37 as a squad this year. Arizona has given up 1,185 base knocks (8.5 per 9 innings) and also 578 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.28 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.29.

Diamondbacks bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 123 times in addition to having 145 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers are sitting with 74 holds so far this season (18th in baseball). The Diamondbacks bullpen have a save rate of 69.4% and have stepped onto the mound in 124 save situations. They have compiled 34 saves for the year and have not converted 15 of their 49 save chances. The relievers have inherited 185 runners for the year with 28.1% of those players crossing home plate. The Diamondbacks have dispatched 470 relievers to the hill for the season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have amassed 3,753 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,230 assists and 53 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .989 which is 2nd in professional baseball, and have a total of 121 double plays. The Diamondbacks have converted 71.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of 11,259 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 5th in professional baseball.

Kelly (74-65 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.87 and he has gone up against 4,759 batters during his time in the majors. He has allowed 1,053 base knocks (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has 364 free passes. His earned run average is 3.93 (502 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.233. Kelly has taken the hill for 1,149 innings and has totaled 1,006 punch outs in his pro baseball career.

The Houston Astros have compiled a team on-base percentage of .315 as well as a team batting average of .240 for the season. They have struck out on 1,147 instances (18th in the league) and have accounted for 1,129 base knocks. Houston has accounted for 184 home runs on the season as well as 602 RBIs. The Astros hold a slugging % of .408 and they are scoring 4.52 runs per game (12th in baseball). They have notched 204 doubles, while taking a walk 467 times as well as putting up 633 runs.

The Astros have a team WHIP of 1.361 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.60 as a team on the season. They rank 11th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,112. The Houston pitching staff have given up 675 runs for the year while holding an ERA of 4.58 (632 earned runs conceded). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.90 (1,225 strikeouts against 579 walks). They have allowed 180 dingers and they allow 4.89 runs per 9 innings (24th in MLB).

With 127 save situations, the Astros have accumulated 72 holds in addition to 9 blown saves. Houston has had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 53 save opportunities and they have earned 44 saves. Houston relievers have an inherited score rate of 25.8% of 190 inherited base runners. Their relievers have come in 140 times in high leverage situations and also on 128 occasions with runners on. They rank 1st in the league with a save rate of 83.0%, and they have sent 452 relief pitchers onto the field on the season.

The Houston Astros have gotten 110 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (11th in baseball). The Astros have 1,032 assists, 64 errors and have earned 3,727 putouts on the season. Out of their 11,181 innings on the diamond, the Astros have earned a efficiency on defense of 70.6% (11th in MLB).

So far in his MLB career, Javier has surrendered 451 base hits while he has totaled 640 K's in 582 innings. Javier (36-27 career record) has a 3.88 earned run average while allowing 7.0 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 251 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.183 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.69 and he has faced 2,421 hitters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Houston (+106)

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