Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 9/25/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Friday, September 25, 2026

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (+125) San Diego (-150)

The Arizona Diamondbacks (83-74) are traveling to Petco Park on Friday where they will take on the San Diego Padres (87-70). The moneyline on this matchup has Arizona at +125 while San Diego is coming in at -150. The over/under has been set at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Brandon Pfaadt and Casey Mize.

The Diamondbacks have hit 263 doubles as a squad and have smacked 158 balls out of the park. Arizona has a slugging % of .399 and have been rung up 1,158 times, while being walked on 521 occasions. As a unit, the Arizona Diamondbacks are notching 4.5 runs per contest, which ranks them 15th in MLB. They have recorded 669 RBI's and 1,289 hits on the season, while their average at the plate sits at .245. They have accumulated 700 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .316.

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The Diamondbacks have a team earned run average of 4.09 this season (12th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,105 hitters. Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed 179 home runs and also 696 runs in total (14th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 468 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.33 as a team this season. Arizona has given up 1,310 base hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 635 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.36 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.27.

The Diamondbacks relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 67.3% and have come into the game in 137 save situations. They have accumulated 37 saves for the year and have blown 18 of 55 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 201 runners so far this year and 26.9% of those runners crossing the plate. Diamondbacks pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 139 times in addition to having 167 appearances in high leverage situations. The Diamondbacks have sent 529 relief pitchers to the mound for the year. The relievers are sitting with 81 holds so far this year (19th in baseball).

The Diamondbacks have converted 71.3% of baseballs in play into outs in their 12,591 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 7th in professional baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a total of 4,197 putouts on the campaign, as well as 1,355 assists and 64 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which has them sitting 3rd in MLB, and they have turned 135 double plays.

Pfaadt (34-31 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.75 and he has faced 2,479 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 610 hits (9.4 hits per 9 innings) and has had 135 free passes. His earned run average is 4.82 (312 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.280. Pfaadt has pitched in 582 innings and has racked up 513 K's in his career.

The San Diego Padres hold an on-base percentage of .318 in addition to a team batting average of .243 this season. They have struck out on 1,267 instances (23rd in the league) and have accounted for 1,266 base hits. San Diego has a total of 179 home runs on the season to go along with 665 RBIs. The Padres have a team SLG% of .398 and they earn 4.39 runs per game (19th in MLB). They have recorded 228 two-baggers, while getting a free base 538 times as well as scoring 690 runs.

The San Diego pitching staff have given up 656 runs this year while holding a team ERA of 3.96 (612 earned runs relinquished). They have conceded 176 long balls and they relinquish 4.24 runs per 9 innings (9th in baseball). The Padres have a team WHIP of 1.289 and have a FIP of 4.19 as a team on the year. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,275 strikeouts vs 532 free passes). They have a ranking of 13th in baseball as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,261.

San Diego relievers have an inherited score rate of 31.3% out of 243 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 184 times in high leverage situations in addition to 150 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 172 save situations, the Padres have 102 holds and 19 blown saves. They are currently ranked 8th in the league with a save rate of 71.2%, and they have sent 531 bullpen pitchers to the hill on the season.

In 12,522 innings on the diamond, the Padres have a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (10th in professional baseball). The San Diego Padres have turned 127 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .989 (2nd in the majors). The Padres have 1,387 assists, 63 errors and have a tally of 4,174 putouts this year.

Thus far in his career, Mize has conceded 495 hits while totaling 389 K's in 480 innings pitched. He has allowed 235 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.318 and a FIP of 4.3. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.82 and he has gone up against 2,056 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. Mize (25-28 career record) has earned a 4.40 ERA while giving up 9.3 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Arizona (+125)

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