Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/27/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Date: Monday, July 27, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-145) New York (+125)

Citi Field is where the New York Mets (43-61) will play the Atlanta Braves (61-42) on Monday. The moneyline on this game has Atlanta at -145 while New York is sitting at +125. The betting total comes in at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Martin Perez and Zac Thornton.

Atlanta is slugging .420 and have been rung up 835 times, while drawing a walk on 310 occasions. They have accounted for 497 runs batted in as well as 879 hits this year, and their batting average sits at .250. The Braves have tallied 164 doubles as a squad and have hit 138 balls out of the park. They have racked up 515 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .316. As a squad, the Atlanta Braves are compiling 5.0 runs per outing, which is 6th in baseball.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.54 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.24. Braves pitchers have given up 119 long balls in addition to 408 total runs (6th in the league). Atlanta has surrendered 789 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 375 earned runs. The Braves are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.69 this season (7th in the league), and they have rung up 879 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 346 hitters and their FIP sits at 4.12 as a squad this season.

The Braves have sent 330 relief pitchers to the mound for the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 105 runners on the campaign with 26.7% of those runners crossing the plate. The bullpen have 73 holds over the course of the season (3rd in MLB). Braves pitchers have come into the game with players on base 73 times in addition to having 109 appearances in high leverage situations. They have tallied 31 saves on the year and have blown 13 out of their 44 chances to save the game. The Braves bullpen have compiled a save rate of 70.5% and stepped onto the hill in 120 save situations.

The Braves have converted 71.5% of balls in play into outs out of 8,232 innings, which has them sitting at 4th in MLB. The Atlanta Braves have a tally of 2,744 putouts for the season, in addition to 848 assists and 46 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .987 which ranks 11th in pro baseball, and have a total of 83 double plays.

Perez (97-99 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.30 while going up against 7,419 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 1,816 hits (9.5 hits per 9 innings) and has had 626 free passes. His earned run average is 4.36 (832 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.423. Perez has taken the mound for 1,716 innings and has earned 1,218 punch outs during his career.

The Mets have a slugging percentage of .383 and they are earning 4.05 runs per outing (27th in baseball). They have tallied 129 doubles, while getting a free base 326 times and scoring 421 runs. New York has knocked in 123 home runs so far this year as well as 401 RBIs. They have struck out on 872 occasions (14th in the league) and have tallied 816 base hits. The New York Mets have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .303 in addition to a batting average of .233 over the course of the season.

The Mets have a team WHIP of 1.309 and have a FIP of 4.04 as a team on the campaign. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 9.20 (943 strikeouts vs 372 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 14th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 839. They have yielded 115 HR's and they surrender 4.74 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). The New York pitching staff have surrendered 487 runs on the campaign while holding a team ERA of 4.23 (435 earned runs yielded).

They rank 24th in MLB with a save rate of 56.7%, and they have dispatched 321 relievers to the mound on the year. Their relievers have come in 109 times in high leverage situations and on 103 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 69 save situations, the Mets have compiled 39 holds and also 13 blown saves. New York has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 30 save opportunities and they have tallied 17 saves. New York bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 28.9% out of their 142 inherited base runners.

The New York Mets have gotten 58 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in baseball). The Mets have 845 assists, 69 errors and are sitting with 2,777 putouts on the season. Out of their 8,331 innings on the field, the Mets have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (21st in baseball).

Thus far in his career, Thornton has surrendered 14 base hits and he has 17 K's in 23 innings. Thornton (1-1 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 1.95 ERA while surrendering 5.5 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 5 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 0.866 and a FIP of 1.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.83 and he has gone up against 87 batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Atlanta (-145)

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