Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-128) New York (+106)

The New York Mets (45-62) will try to beat the Atlanta Braves (62-44) at Citi Field on Wednesday. The moneyline on this game has Atlanta at -128 while New York is opening at +106. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Grant Holmes and Sean Manaea.

As a unit, the Atlanta Braves are scoring 4.9 runs/g, which has them sitting at 6th in MLB. They are sitting with 523 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .315. The Braves have earned 168 doubles as a team and have smacked 140 balls out of the park. They have compiled 505 runs batted in in addition to 899 hits so far this year, and their batting average is at .249. Atlanta is slugging .416 and have been rung up 859 times, while taking a walk on 322 occasions.

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The Braves have compiled a team earned run average of 3.74 on the year (7th in the league), and they have struck out 909 hitters. Braves pitchers have allowed 125 long balls and 427 total runs (7th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 362 opposing hitters and their FIP is 4.17 as a unit this year. Atlanta has surrendered 821 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 392 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.51 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.26.

Braves pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 76 times as well as having 114 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have accumulated 75 holds for the season (3rd in the league). The Braves bullpen have compiled a save rate of 68.9% and have entered the game in 123 save situations. They have earned 31 saves on the year and have not converted 14 of their 45 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 108 runners for the year with 25.9% of them crossing home plate. The Braves have dispatched 339 relievers to the hill for the season.

The Braves have turned 71.2% of baseballs in play into outs in their 8,481 innings on the field, which ranks them 5th in professional baseball. The Atlanta Braves have a tally of 2,827 putouts this season, as well as 869 assists and 49 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .987 which has them sitting 12th in the majors, and they have turned 87 double plays.

Holmes has thrown 280 frames and is sitting with 276 strikeouts during his MLB career. Holmes (12-14 career win-loss mark) has earned a FIP of 3.76 and he has faced 1,196 batters in the majors. His ERA is 3.82 (119 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.310. He has surrendered 255 base knocks (8.2 hits per nine innings) with 112 walks.

The Mets have a team SLG% of .387 and they have an average of 4.17 runs per contest (24th in baseball). They have hit 132 doubles, while getting a free base 345 times and notching 446 runs. New York has compiled 129 long balls this year as well as 425 RBIs. They have been rung up on 899 occasions (13th in MLB) and have accounted for 847 hits. The New York Mets have accounted for a team OBP of .307 as well as a batting average of .235 on the season.

The New York pitching staff have conceded 497 runs this year while holding a team ERA of 4.18 (442 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 117 dingers and they give up 4.70 runs per 9 innings (19th in baseball). The Mets have a WHIP of 1.301 with a FIP of 4.01 as a squad over the course of the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.20 (971 strikeouts vs 377 walks). They sit at 14th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 862.

With 71 save situations, the Mets have accrued 41 holds and also 13 blown saves. New York has had relief pitchers enter the game in 30 save opportunities and they have come away with 17 saves. New York relievers hold an inherited score rate of 28.9% of 142 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 110 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with runners on. They rank 24th in MLB holding a save percentage of 56.7%, and they have dispatched 329 relievers to the hill this year.

The New York Mets have turned 63 double plays and have a fielding rate of .981 (29th in MLB). The Mets have racked up 870 assists, 71 errors and have accounted for 2,858 putouts so far this season. Out of their 8,574 innings played, the Mets have earned a efficiency on defense of 69.3% (21st in professional baseball).

So far in his career, Manaea has allowed 1,238 hits while he has totaled 1,268 strikeouts in 1,330 innings pitched. Manaea (81-71 career win-loss record) has a 4.11 earned run average while giving up 8.4 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 608 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.213 and having a FIP of 4.1. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.38 and he has gone up against 5,573 opposing batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Atlanta (-128)

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