Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-145) Philadelphia (+125)

The Philadelphia Phillies (79-61) will try to defeat the Atlanta Braves (83-57) at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Braves at -145 and the Phillies are priced at +125. The total comes in at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Martin Perez and Zack Wheeler.

As a team, the Atlanta Braves are knocking in 4.7 runs per game, which has them at 9th in MLB. They have notched a total of 653 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .312. The Braves have hit 224 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 178 balls out of the park. They have earned 626 RBI's and 1,177 base knocks so far this year, while their batting average sits at .249. Atlanta has a slugging rate of .413 and have struck out 1,140 times, while taking a walk on 407 occasions.

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The Braves have compiled a team earned run average of 3.58 over the course of the season (3rd in MLB), and they have struck out 1,187 hitters. Braves pitchers have conceded 152 home runs and 535 runs (3rd in the league). They have walked 473 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.04 as a unit on the year. Atlanta has yielded 1,079 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 495 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.51 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.25.

The Braves have sent 442 relievers to the hill on the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 154 base runners this season with 22.7% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have earned 99 holds this year (3rd in MLB). Braves bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 105 times and also have had 160 appearances in high leverage situations. They have accumulated 43 saves for the year and have blown 19 of 62 chances to save the game. The Braves relievers have recorded a save percentage of 69.4% and have entered the game in 166 save situations.

The Atlanta Braves are sitting with 3,729 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,146 assists and 61 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .988 which has them sitting 8th in pro baseball, and have a total of 114 double plays. The Braves have turned 71.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 11,187 innings on the field, which ranks them 7th in baseball.

Perez has taken the hill for 1,752 frames and has accumulated 1,244 punch outs so far in his career. Perez (99-101 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.25 while he has faced 7,569 hitters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 4.32 (841 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.419. He has surrendered 1,847 hits (9.5 hits per nine innings) and has had 640 free passes.

The Phillies have a team slugging % of .400 and they earn 4.51 runs per outing (13th in baseball). They have put up 202 two-baggers, while walking 450 times as well as putting up 631 runs. Philadelphia has compiled 165 long balls this year to go along with 611 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,161 occasions (16th in baseball) and have totaled 1,139 hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have accumulated a team OBP of .313 and a team batting average of .243 this season.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.282 with a FIP of 3.76 as a staff on the season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 10.00 (1,374 strikeouts vs 423 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 18th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,169. They have conceded 163 dingers and they allow 4.31 runs per 9 innings (10th in MLB). The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 595 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 3.99 (551 earned runs conceded).

Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score rate of 34.9% of 146 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 138 times in high leverage situations and on 107 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 122 save situations, the Phillies have earned 64 holds and also 18 blown saves. They are currently ranked 12th in MLB with a save percentage of 67.9%, and they have sent 462 relievers onto the diamond on the year.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 83 double plays and have a fielding rate of .986 (14th in the majors). The Phillies have accrued 1,151 assists, 70 errors and have accounted for 3,728 putouts for the season. In 11,184 innings played, the Phillies are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 67.9% (28th in the majors).

Wheeler (124-80 win-loss mark in his career) has a 3.28 ERA and has conceded 7.6 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.72 and he has gone up against 7,610 hitters so far in his MLB career. He has given up a total of 678 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.134 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.2. In his MLB career, Wheeler has conceded 1,576 hits while he has earned 1,974 strikeouts in 1,858 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Atlanta (-145)

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