Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Monday, September 7, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-130) Philadelphia (+110)

The Atlanta Braves (84-58) are en route to Citizens Bank Park on Monday where they will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (80-62). The odds on this game have Atlanta at -130 and Philadelphia is priced at +110. The betting total is set at 8. The starting pitchers are Grant Holmes and Jesus Luzardo.

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As a squad, the Atlanta Braves are putting up 4.7 runs per game, which ranks them 9th in baseball. They have accumulated 660 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .312. The Braves have accrued 227 doubles as a unit and have hit 181 baseballs out of the park. They have accounted for 633 runs batted in and 1,190 base knocks this year, while their batting average sits at .248. Atlanta is slugging .412 and have been rung up 1,158 times, while taking a walk on 413 occasions.

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Their K/BB ratio is 2.51 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25. Braves pitchers have relinquished 154 home runs in addition to 541 runs (2nd in the league). Atlanta has given up 1,094 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 501 earned runs. The Braves are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.58 over the course of the season (3rd in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,203 batters. They have walked 479 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.04 as a squad so far this season.

The Braves have sent 446 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 156 runners this year and 22.4% of them ended up crossing the plate. The relievers have earned 100 holds on the campaign (3rd in baseball). Braves pitchers have stepped onto the hill with players on base 106 times as well as having 161 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 44 saves on the season and have not converted 19 of 63 chances to save the game. The Braves bullpen have a save percentage of 69.8% and have come into the game in 168 save situations.

The Braves have turned 71.3% of balls in play into outs out of their 11,340 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 5th in pro baseball. The Atlanta Braves have accounted for 3,780 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,157 assists and 61 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .988 which has them sitting 6th in professional baseball, and they have turned 115 double plays.

Holmes has taken the hill for 314 innings and is sitting with 297 strikeouts so far in his MLB career. Holmes (15-15 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 3.69 while going up against 1,335 hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.75 (131 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.295. He has given up 283 hits (8.1 hits per 9 innings) with 124 walks.

The Phillies have a team SLG% of .400 and they score 4.49 runs per outing (14th in baseball). They have notched 205 doubles, while getting a free base 456 times as well as putting up 637 runs. Philadelphia has knocked in 167 HRs over the course of the season as well as 617 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,177 instances (16th in baseball) and are sitting with 1,154 hits. The Philadelphia Phillies are sitting with an on-base percentage of .313 as well as a team batting average of .242 over the course of the season.

The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.278 with a FIP of 3.77 as a unit for the season. Their K/BB ratio is 9.90 (1,392 strikeouts against 429 walks). They are currently ranked 18th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,182. They have surrendered 166 dingers and they surrender 4.30 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 602 runs this season while having a team ERA of 3.99 (558 earned runs yielded).

They sit at 12th in baseball with a save percentage of 68.4%, and they have sent 468 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 140 times in high leverage situations and also on 107 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 125 save situations, the Phillies have accrued 66 holds in addition to 18 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relievers to take the mound in 57 save chances and they have tallied 39 saves. Philadelphia relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.9% out of 146 inherited base runners.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 84 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in MLB). The Phillies have racked up 1,170 assists, 71 errors and have amassed 3,782 putouts this season. Out of their 11,346 innings played, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 68.0% (28th in pro baseball).

So far in his career, Luzardo has allowed 767 base hits while he has totaled 984 punch outs in 864 innings pitched. He has given up 381 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.220 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.9. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.42 and he has faced 3,601 batters during his MLB career. Luzardo (54-46 record in his career) has earned a 3.97 ERA and has conceded 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Atlanta (-130)

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