Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 7/9/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-128) Pittsburgh (+106)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-45) will play the Atlanta Braves (52-38) at PNC Park on Thursday. The odds on this game have Atlanta at -128 and Pittsburgh is coming in at +106. The betting total comes in at 8. The starting pitchers are Bryce Elder and Mitch Keller.

The Braves have hit 141 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 116 balls out of the park. Atlanta has a slugging rate of .413 and have struck out 718 times, while being walked on 269 occasions. As a unit, the Atlanta Braves are recording 4.9 runs per game, which has them at 6th in the league. They have 429 runs batted in and 763 base knocks on the year, while their team batting average is .249. They have earned a total of 441 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .314.

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The Braves are sitting with a team ERA of 3.65 this season (5th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 760 batters. Braves pitchers have given up 101 home runs in addition to 354 total runs (5th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 301 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.11 as a team this season. Atlanta has surrendered 689 base knocks (7.8 per 9 innings) as well as 324 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.24.

The Braves have dispatched 281 relievers to the mound so far this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 87 runners on the campaign with 27.6% of those runners crossing the plate. The bullpen have earned 61 holds on the year (4th in the league). Braves relief pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 61 times in addition to having 90 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 26 saves for the season and have blown 9 of their 35 save opportunities. The Braves relievers have a save percentage of 74.3% and have stepped onto the mound in 99 save situations.

The Braves have converted 71.5% of balls in play into outs in their 7,188 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 4th in the majors. The Atlanta Braves have 2,396 putouts on the year, in addition to 747 assists and 41 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .987 which is 10th in professional baseball, and they have turned 70 double plays.

Elder has thrown 532 frames and is sitting with 435 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Elder (29-30 career win-loss mark) has a FIP of 4.41 and he has gone up against 2,279 batters in the majors. His ERA is 4.48 (265 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.334. He has conceded 526 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) with 184 walks.

Pittsburgh has accounted for 117 home runs over the course of the season and 467 RBIs. They have recorded 146 doubles, while taking a walk 349 times and scoring 487 runs. The Pittsburgh Pirates have an OBP of .342 in addition to a team batting average of .263 so far this year. The Pirates have a SLG% of .424 and they score 5.29 runs per contest (3rd in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 864 instances (2nd in the league) and are sitting with 845 hits.

The Pirates have a team WHIP of 1.314 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a team so far this year. They are sitting at 16th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 747. The Pittsburgh pitching staff have conceded 446 runs for the year while having an ERA of 4.27 (390 earned runs given up). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.10 (835 strikeouts vs 332 walks). They have yielded 96 homers and they give up 4.89 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league).

They are ranked 28th in the league with a save rate of 50.0%, and they have sent 292 relievers to the mound on the season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 82 times in high leverage situations and on 86 occasions with runners on. With 78 save situations, the Pirates have 43 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. Pittsburgh has had relievers step onto the hill in 34 save chances and they have tallied 17 saves. Pittsburgh relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.1% out of 122 inherited runners.

In 7,395 innings on the field, the Pirates have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (22nd in baseball). The Pittsburgh Pirates have turned 71 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (23rd in professional baseball). The Pirates have recorded 730 assists, 56 errors and have a total of 2,465 putouts so far this year.

During his pro baseball career, Keller has given up 1,012 base hits while totaling 911 strikeouts in 978 innings. He has given up a total of 496 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.374 and a FIP of 4.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.74 and he has faced 4,246 batters during his career. Keller (48-71 mark in his career) holds a 4.56 earned run average while conceding 9.3 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Atlanta (-128)

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