Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/20/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Monday, July 20, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+106) Boston (-128)

Fenway Park is the site where the Boston Red Sox (49-48) will play the Baltimore Orioles (48-51) on Monday. The line on this contest has Baltimore at +106 while Boston is priced at -128. The total is 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Shane Baz and Payton Tolle.

Baltimore has a slugging rate of .397 and have been called out on strikes 908 times, while being walked on 381 occasions. They have compiled 439 RBI's and 781 base knocks over the course of the season, and their team batting average comes in at .237. The Orioles have hit 147 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 118 balls out of the stadium. They are sitting with 454 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .320. As a team, the Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.6 runs per game, which is 11th in the league.

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The Orioles have a team ERA of 4.23 for the season (16th in MLB), and they have struck out 784 batters. Orioles pitchers have allowed 108 home runs and 470 runs in total (21st in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 344 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.17 as a unit over the course of the season. Baltimore has conceded 848 hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and also 414 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.28 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.35.

Orioles relief pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 92 times and also have had 97 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have tallied 53 holds for the year (14th in baseball). The Orioles relief pitchers have accumulated a save percentage of 66.7% and have entered the game in 90 save situations. They have recorded 24 saves over the course of the season and have blown 12 out of their 36 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 127 base runners on the year and 26.8% of those players crossing home plate. The Orioles have sent 326 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year.

The Baltimore Orioles have accumulated 2,642 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 854 assists and 61 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .983 which has them sitting 23rd in pro baseball, and have a total of 72 double plays. The Orioles have converted 69.2% of balls in play into outs out of their 7,926 innings on the field, ranking them 23rd in baseball.

Baz (21-26 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.17 and he has faced 1,678 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has given up 361 base knocks (8.2 hits per 9 innings) with 145 free passes. His earned run average is 4.24 (187 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.274. Baz has thrown 397 frames and has earned 392 punch outs in his MLB career.

The Red Sox hold a team slugging % of .394 and they score 4.20 runs per game (22nd in baseball). They have hit 172 two-baggers, while getting a free base 294 times and putting up 407 runs. Boston has 93 home runs on the year and 390 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 797 instances (23rd in baseball) and have 793 base knocks. The Boston Red Sox have a team on-base percentage of .315 in addition to a team batting average of .244 for the year.

The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.215 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.79 as a staff this season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.60 (821 strikeouts vs 279 walks). They rank 9th in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 765. They have given up 99 HR's and they give up 3.84 runs per 9 innings (3rd in baseball). The Boston pitching staff have relinquished 367 runs on the campaign and come in with a team ERA of 3.56 (340 earned runs conceded).

Boston relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.9% out of their 113 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 82 times in high leverage situations in addition to 79 occasions with runners on. With 96 save situations, the Red Sox have recorded 60 holds and also 9 blown saves. They are ranked 4th in MLB with a save percentage of 73.5%, and they have sent 299 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this season.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 65 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .987 (11th in MLB). The Red Sox have recorded 826 assists, 45 errors and are sitting with 2,578 putouts over the course of the season. In 7,734 innings played, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (13th in MLB).

Thus far in his career, Tolle has conceded 83 base knocks and he has 106 punch outs in 100 innings pitched. Tolle (5-7 career mark) has a 3.60 ERA while allowing 7.5 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 40 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.159 and having a FIP of 3.5. His K/BB ratio is 3.21 and he has gone up against 415 opposing hitters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Boston (-128) and under 8 runs

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