Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/21/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+102) Boston (-122)

The Baltimore Orioles (49-51) are traveling to Fenway Park on Tuesday where they will try to defeat the Boston Red Sox (50-48). The moneyline on this game has Baltimore at +102 and Boston is at -122. The over/under is 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Kyle Bradish and Ranger Suarez.

Baltimore has a slugging percentage of .396 and have been called out on strikes 918 times, while taking a walk on 388 occasions. They have accumulated 443 runs batted in and 787 base knocks over the course of the season, while their average at the plate sits at .237. The Orioles have recorded 148 doubles as a unit and have knocked 119 baseballs out of the stadium. They have 459 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .321. As a unit, the Baltimore Orioles are recording 4.6 runs per outing, which has them at 11th in the league.

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The Orioles have a team earned run average of 4.21 so far this season (15th in the league), and their staff has struck out 792 batters. Orioles pitchers have given up 109 home runs and 472 total runs (21st in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 345 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.16 as a team this season. Baltimore has surrendered 855 base hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and also 416 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.30 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.35.

Orioles bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 92 times as well as having 97 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 53 holds for the season (15th in MLB). The Orioles relievers have a save percentage of 67.6% and have come into the game in 91 save situations. They have accumulated 25 saves for the year and have blown 12 of their 37 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 127 runners on the year with 26.8% of them ended up crossing the plate. The Orioles have sent 328 relief pitchers to the mound on the year.

The Baltimore Orioles have earned a total of 2,669 putouts so far this season, as well as 862 assists and 63 errors. Their fielding rate is at .982 which has them ranked 24th in the majors, and have accumulated 72 double plays. The Orioles have turned 69.2% of baseballs in play into outs out of 8,007 innings on the field, which has them ranked 23rd in professional baseball.

Bradish (25-24 career win-loss record) is the owner of a FIP of 3.46 while going up against 1,923 opposing hitters during his time in the majors. He has given up 396 hits (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has 165 free passes. His earned run average is 3.51 (181 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.208. Bradish has taken the ball for 464 frames and has earned 485 punch outs in his pro baseball career.

Boston is sitting with 94 home runs on the year as well as 395 runs batted in. They have put up 173 two-baggers, while walking 298 times and notching 413 runs. The Boston Red Sox have compiled a team OBP of .315 and a team batting average of .244 this year. The Red Sox have a team slugging percentage of .393 and they are scoring 4.21 runs per contest (23rd in baseball). They have been rung up on 802 occasions (23rd in baseball) and have earned 799 base hits.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.218 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.79 as a staff for the year. They come in at 9th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 773. The Boston pitching staff have given up 368 runs on the year while holding an ERA of 3.54 (341 earned runs yielded). Their K/BB ratio is 8.60 (829 strikeouts against 284 free passes). They have given up 100 long balls and they yield 3.82 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league).

With 96 save situations, the Red Sox have accumulated 60 holds in addition to 9 blown saves. Boston has called on relievers to take the mound in 34 save opportunities and they have walked away with 25 saves. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.9% out of 113 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 82 times in high leverage situations and also on 79 occasions with runners on base. They are ranked 4th in MLB holding a save percentage of 73.5%, and they have dispatched 302 relievers to the hill so far this season.

In their 7,815 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox have earned a efficiency on defense of 70.4% (13th in professional baseball). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 66 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .987 (10th in the majors). The Red Sox have accrued 836 assists, 45 errors and have accumulated 2,605 putouts on the season.

In his pro baseball career, Suarez has given up 808 base hits while earning 802 punch outs in 853 innings pitched. He has conceded a total of 318 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.259 and having a FIP of 3.3. His K/BB ratio is 3.02 and he has gone up against 3,573 opposing batters during his career. Suarez (57-40 career win-loss mark) has a 3.35 earned run average while allowing 8.5 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Baltimore (+102)

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