Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (-182) Cincinnati (+150)

The Cincinnati Reds (40-46) will try to beat the Baltimore Orioles (40-48) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has the Orioles at -182 while the Reds are opening at +150. The total is 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Brandon Young and Hunter Greene.

As a unit, the Baltimore Orioles are recording 4.6 runs per game, which has them sitting at 12th in the league. They have notched a total of 403 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .319. The Orioles have accounted for 135 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 102 baseballs out of the stadium. They have amassed 391 RBI's in addition to 700 hits this year, and their average at the plate comes in at .239. Baltimore is slugging .397 and have struck out 809 times, while drawing a walk on 334 occasions.

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The Orioles have compiled a team ERA of 4.39 this season (22nd in MLB), and they have struck out 705 batters. Orioles pitchers have relinquished 99 home runs and 436 total runs (23rd in MLB). They have walked 308 batters and their FIP is 4.23 as a unit over the course of the season. Baltimore has given up 765 base hits (8.8 per 9 innings) as well as 381 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.29 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.38.

Orioles pitchers have entered the game with players on base 82 times and also have had 82 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have 47 holds this year (13th in the league). The Orioles relief pitchers have a save percentage of 64.3% and have entered the game in 76 save situations. They have accumulated 18 saves for the season and have blown 10 of 28 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 113 base runners on the season with 26.5% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The Orioles have sent 289 relief pitchers to the hill for the year.

The Baltimore Orioles have a total of 2,342 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 749 assists and 54 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .983 which is 23rd in MLB, and have accumulated 62 double plays. The Orioles have converted 68.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of 7,026 innings on the field, which has them sitting 27th in MLB.

Young (7-9 win-loss record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.46 and he has faced 567 opposing batters in the majors. He has given up 134 base hits (9.3 hits per 9 innings) and has had 49 walks. His earned run average is 4.52 (65 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.415. Young has taken the ball for 129 frames and has tallied 104 strikeouts during his career.

The Cincinnati Reds hold a team OBP of .309 as well as a team batting average of .228 this season. They have been rung up on 816 instances (3rd in the league) and are sitting with 659 base knocks. Cincinnati has 106 home runs for the year as well as 345 runs batted in. The Reds hold a team slugging percentage of .391 and they are earning 4.23 runs per contest (20th in baseball). They have 139 doubles, while taking a walk 319 times as well as scoring 364 runs.

The Reds have a team WHIP of 1.459 and are the owners of a FIP of 5.01 as a pitching staff on the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.10 (692 strikeouts vs 386 walks). They rank 23rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 730. They have given up 119 dingers and they surrender 4.93 runs per 9 innings (22nd in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have given up 419 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 4.59 (390 earned runs yielded).

With 87 save situations, the Reds have amassed 49 holds and 17 blown saves. Cincinnati has called on relievers to take the mound in 37 save opportunities and they have earned 20 saves. Cincinnati relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 24.1% of 141 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 108 times in high leverage situations and also on 102 occasions with base runners. They sit at 25th in baseball with a save percentage of 54.1%, and they have dispatched 310 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the year.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 63 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (18th in MLB). The Reds have racked up 705 assists, 48 errors and have accounted for 2,295 putouts this season. In their 6,885 innings on the diamond, the Reds are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 70.2% (13th in pro baseball).

So far in his MLB career, Greene has surrendered 386 base knocks while accumulating 617 strikeouts in 495 innings. He has given up a total of 201 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.141 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. His K/BB ratio is 3.45 and he has faced 2,060 opposing batters thus far in his career. Greene (25-29 record in his career) has earned a 3.65 ERA and has surrendered 7.0 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+150) and under 8.5 runs

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