Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 4/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+125) Cleveland (-150)

Progressive Field is where the Cleveland Guardians (10-8) will compete against the Baltimore Orioles (9-8) on Thursday. The moneyline on this contest has the Orioles at +125 and the Guardians are sitting at -150. The over/under is 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Shane Baz and Parker Messick.

As a squad, the Baltimore Orioles are recording 4.2 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have earned a total of 72 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .337. The Orioles have hit 33 doubles as a team and have hit 16 balls out of the stadium. They have tallied 71 runs batted in as well as 138 hits on the campaign, and their team batting average is at .248. Baltimore owns a slugging percentage of .397 and have struck out 154 times, while drawing a walk on 71 occasions.

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The Orioles have an ERA of 3.83 for the year (12th in the league), and the staff has rung up 151 batters. Orioles pitchers have yielded 16 home runs and 70 runs in total (10th in MLB). They have walked 58 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.89 as a unit for the season. Baltimore has allowed 142 base hits (8.5 per 9 innings) as well as 64 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.60 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.33.

Orioles pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 10 times in addition to having 17 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have 15 holds on the season (3rd in baseball). The Orioles bullpen have a save percentage of 75.0% and have entered the game in 23 save situations. They have accumulated 6 saves this season and have not converted 2 out of their 8 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 16 base runners this year and 0.0% of those players crossing home plate. The Orioles have dispatched 50 relief pitchers to the mound for the season.

The Atlanta Braves are sitting with 451 putouts so far this season, as well as 142 assists and 10 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which has them ranked 20th in professional baseball, and they have turned 17 double plays. The Orioles have turned 67.7% of baseballs in play into outs in their 1,353 innings on the field, which ranks them 27th in MLB.

Baz (17-18 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.20 while facing 1,267 opposing batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 268 base knocks (8.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 108 free passes. His ERA is 4.26 (143 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.245. Baz has taken the hill for 302 innings and has earned 306 K's in his career.

Cleveland has a total of 19 home runs this year and 67 RBIs. They have recorded 35 doubles, while walking 67 times and scoring 72 runs. The Cleveland Guardians hold a team on-base percentage of .314 and a batting average of .228 on the season. The Guardians hold a team slugging % of .384 and they earn 4.00 runs per contest (22nd in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 135 occasions (24th in baseball) and have totaled 134 hits.

The Cleveland pitching staff have allowed 76 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 3.98 (70 earned runs yielded). They have given up 24 home runs and they yield 4.33 runs per 9 innings (13th in baseball). The Guardians have a WHIP of 1.284 with a FIP of 4.27 as a squad over the course of the season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.90 (174 strikeouts against 65 free passes). They are sitting at 20th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 138.

Cleveland relievers hold an inherited score rate of 13.0% out of their 23 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 17 times in high leverage situations and on 15 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 17 save situations, the Guardians have earned 11 holds and 1 blown save. They are ranked 3rd in baseball with a save percentage of 83.3%, and they have sent 51 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond for the season.

In their 1,425 innings on the diamond, the Guardians have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 70.3% (12th in the majors). The Cleveland Guardians have turned 17 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .990 (6th in pro baseball). The Guardians have 129 assists, 6 errors and have accounted for 475 putouts this year.

So far in his pro baseball career, Messick has allowed 57 base hits while tallying 54 strikeouts in 56 frames. Messick (5-1 career record) holds a 2.07 ERA while giving up 9.1 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 13 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.206 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.91 and he has faced 231 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cleveland (-150)

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