Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 5/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins

Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (-128) Miami (+106)

LoanDepot Park is the location where the Miami Marlins (16-18) will try to beat the Baltimore Orioles (15-19) on Tuesday. The moneyline on this game has the Orioles at -128 and the Marlins are coming in at +106. The over/under comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Chris Bassitt and Sandy Alcantara.

Baltimore has a slugging % of .388 and have been called out on strikes 313 times, while drawing a walk on 136 occasions. They have accumulated 151 runs batted in in addition to 260 hits so far this season, while their batting average is sitting at .232. The Orioles have accrued 55 doubles as a unit and have hit 39 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 154 runs scored and hold an OBP of .317. As a team, the Baltimore Orioles are notching 4.5 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 12th in baseball.

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The Orioles have a team earned run average of 4.76 for the year (27th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 285 hitters. Orioles pitchers have allowed 44 long balls and 184 total runs (28th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 122 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.48 as a unit on the year. Baltimore has surrendered 323 base knocks (9.7 per 9 innings) and also 159 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.34 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.48.

The Orioles have sent 119 relievers to the mound for the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 46 base runners so far this season and 15.2% of those runners crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have a total of 20 holds this season (13th in the league). Orioles pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 32 times and also have had 36 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 10 saves this season and have not converted 3 out of their 13 save chances. The Orioles relievers have accumulated a save percentage of 76.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 34 save situations.

The Orioles have converted 66.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 2,706 innings on the field, which ranks them 29th in pro baseball. The Baltimore Orioles have accumulated 902 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 301 assists and 22 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .982 which puts them in 26th in MLB, and have accumulated 28 double plays.

Bassitt (85-67 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.62 while he has gone up against 5,545 batters in the majors. He has allowed 1,222 base knocks (8.4 hits per 9 innings) and has 423 free passes. His ERA is 3.68 (534 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.259. Bassitt has taken the ball for 1,306 innings and has earned 1,208 strikeouts during his pro baseball career.

The Miami Marlins have an on-base percentage of .332 as well as a team batting average of .252 so far this season. They have been rung up on 283 occasions (15th in the league) and have a total of 284 hits. Miami has recorded 25 HRs on the year and 140 runs batted in. The Marlins have a team slugging % of .382 and they have an average of 4.29 runs per contest (19th in MLB). They have tallied 55 two-baggers, while taking a walk 122 times and earning 146 runs.

The Marlins have a team WHIP of 1.254 with a FIP of 3.91 as a unit for the season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.60 (285 strikeouts against 125 walks). They are currently ranked 5th in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 249. They have conceded 29 long balls and they relinquish 4.44 runs per 9 innings (14th in baseball). The Miami pitching staff have allowed 147 runs for the year while having a team ERA of 3.95 (131 earned runs yielded).

Sitting with 37 save situations, the Marlins have tallied 20 holds and 6 blown saves. Miami has had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 16 save chances and they have tallied 10 saves. Miami bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 29.7% out of their 37 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 31 times in high leverage situations and on 24 occasions with base runners. They sit at 15th in MLB with a save percentage of 62.5%, and they have dispatched 103 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond on the campaign.

The Miami Marlins have gotten 20 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in the majors). The Marlins have accrued 266 assists, 23 errors and have accounted for 896 putouts this season. Out of their 2,688 innings played, the Marlins have a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (6th in the majors).

During his MLB career, Alcantara has given up 974 hits while he has totaled 962 strikeouts in 1,122 frames. He has conceded a total of 452 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.175 and having a FIP of 3.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.79 and he has gone up against 4,618 opposing hitters so far in his career. Alcantara (55-69 career win-loss mark) has earned a 3.63 earned run average while giving up 7.8 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Miami (+106) and under 9 runs

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