Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction, 5/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Date: Monday, May 4, 2026

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: YES

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+132) New York (-160)

The Baltimore Orioles (15-18) are on their way to Yankee Stadium on Monday where they will go up against the New York Yankees (22-11). The moneyline on this matchup has Baltimore at +132 and New York is at -160. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Shane Baz and Cam Schlittler.

Baltimore is slugging .391 and have struck out 304 times, while drawing a walk on 133 occasions. They have 149 runs batted in as well as 251 base knocks this season, and their team batting average sits at .230. The Orioles have recorded 54 two-baggers as a team and have hit 39 baseballs out of the park. They have earned a total of 151 runs scored while having a team OBP of .317. As a squad, the Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.6 runs per game, which ranks them 12th in the league.

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The Orioles have compiled a team ERA of 4.55 on the year (23rd in the league), and the staff has struck out 282 hitters. Orioles pitchers have surrendered 41 long balls and also 173 runs in total (28th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 119 batters and their FIP is 4.38 as a team this year. Baltimore has given up 308 base hits (9.5 per 9 innings) as well as 148 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.37 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.46.

Orioles relief pitchers have come into the game with players on base 29 times in addition to having 37 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have tallied 20 holds on the campaign (13th in baseball). The Orioles relief pitchers have a save rate of 76.9% and have entered the game in 34 save situations. They have 10 saves on the campaign and have blown 3 of 13 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 42 runners on the season and 11.9% of them crossing home plate. The Orioles have sent 114 relief pitchers to the hill this season.

The Baltimore Orioles are sitting with 878 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 291 assists and 21 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .982 which has them sitting 26th in MLB, and have 28 double plays. The Orioles have turned 66.5% of balls hit into play into outs in their 2,634 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting at 29th in MLB.

Baz has pitched in 320 innings and has earned 322 punch outs during his career. Baz (18-19 career record) has earned a FIP of 4.21 while he has faced 1,346 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. His earned run average is 4.28 (152 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.256. He has given up 288 base knocks (8.1 hits per nine innings) with 114 walks.

The New York Yankees have a team on-base percentage of .332 and a batting average of .235 for the season. They have struck out on 295 instances (11th in baseball) and are sitting with 254 hits. New York has a total of 53 HRs so far this year to go along with 159 runs batted in. The Yankees hold a team slugging percentage of .439 and they are scoring 5.12 runs per outing (8th in the league). They have tallied 53 doubles, while getting a free base 151 times as well as putting up 169 runs.

The New York pitching staff have relinquished 112 runs over the course of the season while having an ERA of 3.02 (98 earned runs surrendered). They have conceded 28 home runs and they concede 3.45 runs per 9 innings (2nd in MLB). The Yankees have a WHIP of 1.116 and have a FIP of 3.50 as a staff so far this year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.90 (288 strikeouts vs 92 walks). They come in at 2nd in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 234.

With 33 save situations, the Yankees have 18 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. New York has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 14 save chances and they have walked away with 9 saves. New York bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.0% out of 50 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 31 times in high leverage situations and on 33 occasions with runners on base. They sit at 12th in baseball with a save percentage of 64.3%, and they have dispatched 103 relievers onto the field on the year.

The New York Yankees have turned 22 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (19th in baseball). The Yankees have accrued 303 assists, 18 errors and have earned 878 putouts for the year. Out of their 2,634 innings on the diamond, the Yankees have a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (5th in pro baseball).

Schlittler (8-4 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 2.44 ERA while giving up 6.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.59 and he has gone up against 460 batters in his pro baseball career. He has allowed a total of 31 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.051 and having a FIP of 2.4. Thus far in his career, Schlittler has conceded 83 base knocks and he has 133 punch outs in 114 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take New York (-160) and under 8.5 runs

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