Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, 9/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD

TV: MASN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-130) Baltimore (+110)

The Baltimore Orioles (69-72) will take on the Boston Red Sox (76-65) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Saturday. The line on this contest has the Red Sox at -130 and the Orioles open at +110. The over/under is set at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt.

Boston is slugging .408 and have been rung up 1,136 times, while being walked on 450 occasions. They have compiled 604 RBI's and 1,184 base knocks over the course of the season, while their team batting average is at .250. The Red Sox have tallied 259 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 147 baseballs out of the park. They have notched a total of 633 runs and hold an OBP of .323. As a squad, the Boston Red Sox are knocking in 4.5 runs per game, which has them sitting at 14th in baseball.

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The Red Sox are sitting with a team ERA of 3.67 on the season (4th in baseball), and they have struck out 1,205 batters. Red Sox pitchers have allowed 141 home runs and 555 total runs (5th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 409 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.75 as a squad on the year. Boston has conceded 1,149 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) in addition to 512 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.95 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.24.

The Red Sox bullpen have compiled a save rate of 74.5% and have entered the game in 136 save situations. They have tallied 38 saves this season and have blown 13 of their 51 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 148 base runners this season with 30.4% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. Red Sox pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 112 times and also have had 128 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 432 relievers to the mound on the season. The relief pitchers have tallied 83 holds so far this season (9th in MLB).

The Red Sox have converted 69.4% of balls in play into outs in their 11,289 innings on the field, ranking them 21st in pro baseball. The Boston Red Sox have accumulated 3,763 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,221 assists and 76 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .985 which has them ranked 17th in MLB, and have 103 double plays.

Gray (141-106 record in his career) holds a FIP of 3.48 while he has gone up against 8,538 hitters in the majors. He has given up 1,807 base hits (7.9 hits per nine innings) and has 658 walks. His earned run average is 3.53 (808 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.196. Gray has taken the mound for 2,061 innings and has accounted for 2,053 K's in his MLB career.

The Baltimore Orioles have tallied an OBP of .317 as well as a team batting average of .235 this season. They have been rung up on 1,301 occasions (4th in the league) and have a total of 1,105 base hits. Baltimore has compiled 172 long balls so far this year to go along with 617 runs batted in. The Orioles hold a team slugging percentage of .396 and they are earning 4.54 runs per game (10th in the league). They have put up 205 doubles, while taking a walk 525 times and racking up 640 runs.

The Orioles have a team WHIP of 1.344 in addition to having a FIP of 4.07 as a staff so far this season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.10 (1,130 strikeouts vs 464 walks). They are currently ranked 27th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 1,224. They have relinquished 151 long balls and they yield 4.74 runs per 9 innings (22nd in MLB). The Baltimore pitching staff have relinquished 661 runs on the year while holding an ERA of 4.18 (583 earned runs surrendered).

Sitting with 141 save situations, the Orioles have 78 holds and 21 blown saves. Baltimore has had relief pitchers enter the contest in 60 save chances and they have recorded 39 saves. Baltimore relievers have an inherited score percentage of 27.6% out of their 185 inherited base runners. Their relievers have come in 157 times in high leverage situations and on 139 occasions with runners on. They rank 14th in the league holding a save percentage of 65.0%, and they have sent 470 relievers to the hill so far this year.

In their 11,307 innings played, the Orioles are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 68.7% (27th in professional baseball). The Baltimore Orioles have turned 107 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .983 (23rd in pro baseball). The Orioles have accrued 1,205 assists, 84 errors and have earned 3,769 putouts this year.

During his MLB career, Bassitt has given up 1,281 base knocks while accumulating 1,246 strikeouts in 1,357 frames. He has allowed a total of 561 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.266 and having a FIP of 3.7. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.84 and he has faced 5,772 batters during his MLB career. Bassitt (89-69 career record) has earned a 3.72 earned run average and has given up 8.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (-130)

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