Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 3/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-144) Cincinnati (+120)

Great American Ball Park is the site where the Cincinnati Reds (83-79 last season) will try to defeat the Boston Red Sox (89-73 last year) on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has the Red Sox at -144 and the Reds are coming in at +120. The total comes in at 8.5. The starting pitchers are Sonny Gray and Brady Singer.

Boston had a slugging percentage of .421 and were called out on strikes 1,419 times, while drawing a walk on 518 occasions. They had 748 RBI's in addition to 1,414 base knocks over the course of last year, and their batting average finished at .254. The Red Sox accumulated 324 two-baggers as a unit and smacked 186 baseballs out of the park. They earned 786 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .324. As a unit, the Boston Red Sox knocked in 4.9 runs/g, which ranked them 7th in MLB.

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The Red Sox had a team ERA of 3.70 for the previous season (4th in the league), and their staff rung up 1,361 batters. Red Sox pitchers surrendered 164 home runs and 676 total runs (10th in baseball). They walked 530 opposing players and their FIP was 3.98 as a unit last season. Boston surrendered 1,333 base knocks (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 596 earned runs. They accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.57 and the pitching staff earned a collective WHIP of 1.29.

The Red Sox relief pitchers recorded a save rate of 61.6% and came into the game in 161 save situations. The relievers inherited 223 runners for the previous season and 33.2% of those players earned a run for their team. Red Sox relief pitchers stepped onto the hill with runners on 160 times in addition to having 192 contests in high leverage situations. The Red Sox had dispatched 536 relief pitchers to the hill in the previous season. The relief pitchers accumulated 86 holds during the previous year (19th in baseball). They earned 45 saves over the course of last year and did not convert 28 of 73 save opportunities.

The Red Sox turned 69.1% of balls in play into outs out of their 13,035 innings on the diamond, which had them sitting at 22nd in professional baseball. The Baltimore Orioles had a tally of 4,345 putouts over the course of last season, in addition to 1,461 assists and 116 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .985 which put them in 19th in MLB, and earned 131 double plays.

Gray (125-102 career record) has earned a FIP of 3.53 and he has faced 7,952 opposing batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 1,675 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) with 621 free passes. His earned run average is 3.58 (763 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.198. Gray has thrown 1,917 innings and has 1,925 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career.

The Reds held a team slugging % of .391 and they were recording 4.42 runs per game (14th in baseball). They hit 250 two-baggers, while getting a free base 527 times and putting up 716 runs. Cincinnati had 167 home runs for the prior year in addition to 677 RBIs. They struck out on 1,415 occasions (9th in the league) and accounted for 1,333 hits. The Cincinnati Reds had an OBP of .315 in addition to a team batting average of .245 over the course of last year.

The Cincinnati pitching staff surrendered 681 runs last year while having an ERA of 3.86 (616 earned runs surrendered). They conceded 190 long balls and they conceded 4.27 runs per 9 innings (12th in baseball). The Reds held a team WHIP of 1.222 in addition to having a FIP of 4.11 as a staff in the prior season. Their K/BB ratio came in at 8.70 (1,380 strikeouts against 494 walks). They ranked 7th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,260.

Cincinnati called on relief pitchers to take the mound in 63 save chances and they came away with 41 saves. They were ranked 9th in MLB with a save rate of 65.1%, and they sent 550 relief pitchers to the hill last season. Their relief pitchers came in 172 times in high leverage situations and on 148 occasions with base runners. Cincinnati bullpen pitchers had an inherited score percentage of 31.8% of 217 inherited runners. Finishing with 170 save situations, the Reds accumulated 104 holds and 22 blown saves.

Out of their 12,915 innings played, the Reds accumulated a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (4th in MLB). The Cincinnati Reds had 101 double plays and had a fielding percentage of .985 (21st in the majors). The Reds recorded 1,239 assists, 87 errors and earned a total of 4,305 putouts over the course of the prior season.

Thus far in his career, Singer has allowed 845 base hits while he has accumulated 808 strikeouts in 854 frames. Singer (50-56 career mark) has earned a 4.24 earned run average while allowing 8.9 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 402 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.310 and having a FIP of 4.2. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.95 and he has gone up against 3,650 batters so far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+120)

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