Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 8/25/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins

Date: Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-152) Miami (+126)

The Miami Marlins (67-64) host the Boston Red Sox (71-59) at LoanDepot Park on Tuesday. The odds on this game have the Red Sox at -152 and the Marlins are at +126. The over/under is 8. The starting pitchers are Payton Tolle and Tyler Phillips.

Boston has a slugging rate of .407 and have struck out 1,051 times, while being walked on 415 occasions. They have accounted for 564 RBI's as well as 1,094 base knocks for the season, while their average at the plate is .251. The Red Sox have recorded 238 doubles as a unit and have hit 133 balls out of the stadium. They have accounted for 589 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .324. As a team, the Boston Red Sox are notching 4.5 runs per game, which has them at 13th in the league.

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Their K/BB ratio is 3.01 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.22. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 126 home runs and 490 total runs (3rd in MLB). Boston has conceded 1,041 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) and 451 earned runs. The Red Sox are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.51 on the season (3rd in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,112 hitters. They have walked 369 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.67 as a squad this season.

Red Sox pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 100 times as well as having 115 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have recorded 80 holds on the season (8th in MLB). The Red Sox relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 76.6% and have stepped onto the mound in 129 save situations. They have recorded 36 saves this year and have blown 11 of their 47 chances to get a save. The relievers have inherited 135 runners this season and 31.1% of those runners crossing the plate. The Red Sox have sent 399 relievers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Red Sox have converted 69.8% of balls in play into outs out of their 10,407 innings, ranking them 16th in MLB. The Boston Red Sox have accounted for 3,469 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,132 assists and 65 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which is 13th in MLB, and they have turned 96 double plays.

Tolle (8-7 career record) sits with a FIP of 3.39 and he has faced 557 batters in the majors. He has surrendered 115 base hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and has had 41 free passes. His earned run average is 3.44 (52 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.146. Tolle has thrown 136 innings and has tallied 153 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career.

The Miami Marlins have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .326 in addition to a batting average of .249 so far this year. They have been called out on strikes on 1,067 instances (18th in the league) and have earned a total of 1,083 base hits. Miami has recorded 133 long balls so far this year to go along with 550 runs batted in. The Marlins have a slugging percentage of .402 and they have an average of 4.37 runs per outing (19th in the league). They have hit 206 doubles, while walking 446 times as well as recording 573 runs.

The Marlins have a team WHIP of 1.247 and have a FIP of 3.98 as a pitching staff so far this season. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.40 (1,075 strikeouts against 435 free passes). They have a ranking of 4th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 997. They have conceded 129 homers and they allow 4.33 runs per 9 innings (10th in baseball). The Miami pitching staff have relinquished 552 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 3.90 (498 earned runs yielded).

They are ranked 16th in the league holding a save rate of 63.8%, and they have sent 421 relief pitchers onto the field this season. Their relief pitchers have come in 120 times in high leverage situations and on 109 occasions with base runners. With 123 save situations, the Marlins have accrued 74 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. Miami has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 47 save chances and they have walked away with 30 saves. Miami relievers hold an inherited score rate of 23.0% out of 161 inherited runners.

The Miami Marlins have turned 95 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .982 (29th in pro baseball). The Marlins have 1,083 assists, 84 errors and have earned 3,444 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 10,332 innings played, the Marlins are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (9th in pro baseball).

In his career, Phillips has given up 206 hits while tallying 159 K's in 214 innings pitched. Phillips (9-8 career record) holds a 3.91 earned run average while surrendering 8.7 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 93 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.302 and a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.18 and he has gone up against 907 hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+126)

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