Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 8/26/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins

Date: Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-160) Miami (+132)

The Miami Marlins (67-65) host the Boston Red Sox (72-59) at LoanDepot Park on Wednesday. The moneyline on this game has Boston at -160 and Miami is opening at +132. The betting total is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Sonny Gray and Ryan Gusto.

As a unit, the Boston Red Sox are recording 4.5 runs per outing, which is 13th in the league. They are sitting with 593 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .324. The Red Sox have hit 241 two-baggers as a team and have hit 133 baseballs out of the park. They have accounted for 567 RBI's in addition to 1,103 base knocks this year, while their batting average sits at .251. Boston has a slugging percentage of .407 and have struck out 1,058 times, while drawing a walk on 419 occasions.

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The Red Sox have compiled a team ERA of 3.50 over the course of the season (3rd in baseball), and they have struck out 1,119 hitters. Red Sox pitchers have relinquished 126 long balls and also 492 total runs (3rd in MLB). They have walked 375 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 3.67 as a unit on the campaign. Boston has surrendered 1,050 base hits (8.1 per 9 innings) as well as 453 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.98 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.22.

The Red Sox relief pitchers have a save percentage of 77.1% and have come into the game in 130 save situations. They have recorded 37 saves on the campaign and have blown 11 out of their 48 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 135 runners for the year and 31.1% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. Red Sox pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 100 times in addition to having 117 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have sent 402 relief pitchers to the hill on the year. The relief pitchers have a total of 80 holds on the year (8th in the league).

The Red Sox have transformed 69.7% of balls hit into play into outs in their 10,488 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 18th in baseball. The Boston Red Sox have earned 3,496 putouts for the season, in addition to 1,142 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which ranks 13th in pro baseball, and have earned 97 double plays.

Gray has pitched in 2,056 frames and has 2,048 strikeouts so far in his career. His ERA is 3.53 (806 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.195. He has conceded 1,800 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) with 657 free passes. Gray (141-105 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.47 while going up against 8,515 opposing batters in the majors.

The Miami Marlins have recorded an on-base percentage of .327 in addition to a team batting average of .249 for the year. They have been called out on strikes on 1,074 instances (17th in the league) and have tallied 1,092 base hits. Miami has a total of 133 home runs on the season to go along with 552 RBIs. The Marlins have a slugging percentage of .401 and they score 4.36 runs per game (19th in baseball). They have 208 doubles, while taking a walk 452 times as well as recording 575 runs.

The Miami pitching staff have surrendered 556 runs so far this season while having an ERA of 3.90 (502 earned runs relinquished). They have allowed 129 dingers and they yield 4.32 runs per 9 innings (10th in baseball). The Marlins have a team WHIP of 1.249 in addition to having a FIP of 3.98 as a pitching staff so far this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.40 (1,082 strikeouts vs 439 walks). They sit at 5th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,006.

They are currently ranked 17th in the league with a save percentage of 62.5%, and they have dispatched 425 relief pitchers to the mound on the year. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 123 times in high leverage situations and on 111 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 124 save situations, the Marlins have 74 holds in addition to 18 blown saves. Miami has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 48 save chances and they have converted 30 saves. Miami relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 23.3% of 163 inherited base runners.

Out of their 10,413 innings on the diamond, the Marlins have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (9th in baseball). The Miami Marlins have turned 95 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .982 (28th in the majors). The Marlins have recorded 1,094 assists, 84 errors and have 3,471 putouts for the year.

During his MLB career, Gusto has surrendered 176 base hits and he has 148 strikeouts in 158 innings pitched. He has conceded 92 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.433 and a FIP of 5.1. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.90 and he has faced 708 hitters so far in his MLB career. Gusto (7-10 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 5.23 earned run average while surrendering 10.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Boston (-160)

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