Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-128) New York (+106)

The Boston Red Sox (43-48) are on their way to Citi Field on Saturday where they will try to defeat the New York Mets (40-54). The moneyline on this contest has Boston at -128 while New York is coming in at +106. The total comes in at 9. The starting pitchers are Brayan Bello and Freddy Peralta.

The Red Sox have accounted for 160 doubles as a squad and have hit 81 baseballs out of the park. Boston is slugging .387 and have been rung up 750 times, while drawing a walk on 272 occasions. As a team, the Boston Red Sox are notching 4.1 runs per contest, which has them at 26th in baseball. They have 355 runs batted in as well as 743 base knocks on the campaign, and their average at the plate is sitting at .244. They have earned 372 runs while holding a team OBP of .314.

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The Red Sox have an earned run average of 3.67 on the campaign (7th in the league), and their staff has rung up 777 hitters. Red Sox pitchers have allowed 94 long balls and 354 total runs (3rd in baseball). They have walked 264 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.82 as a unit for the year. Boston has yielded 726 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) as well as 328 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.94 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.23.

The Red Sox relief pitchers have a save percentage of 70.0% and have come into the game in 83 save situations. They have tallied 21 saves this season and have not converted 9 of their 30 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 108 base runners on the campaign and 33.3% of those players crossing the plate. Red Sox relief pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 73 times as well as having 76 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 279 relievers to the hill this season. The bullpen have earned 52 holds for the year (12th in MLB).

The Boston Red Sox have accumulated 2,413 putouts on the year, as well as 768 assists and 40 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .988 which has them sitting 8th in MLB, and they have turned 58 double plays. The Red Sox have converted 70.1% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 7,239 innings, which has them sitting 14th in the majors.

Bello (41-42 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.26 while facing 2,620 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has conceded 622 base knocks (9.3 hits per nine innings) with 219 walks. His earned run average is 4.32 (290 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.392. Bello has thrown 604 frames and has 508 K's during his pro baseball career.

The New York Mets have a team OBP of .304 in addition to a team batting average of .235 on the campaign. They have struck out on 772 occasions (19th in MLB) and have totaled 742 base hits. New York has knocked in 110 home runs so far this season as well as 375 runs batted in. The Mets have a team slugging % of .383 and they are recording 4.19 runs per contest (22nd in MLB). They have tallied 116 doubles, while getting a free base 290 times and scoring 394 runs.

The New York pitching staff have surrendered 450 runs for the season while having a team ERA of 4.32 (402 earned runs relinquished). They have relinquished 103 homers and they allow 4.84 runs per 9 innings (19th in baseball). The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.314 and have a FIP of 4.03 as a team over the course of the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.20 (860 strikeouts against 337 free passes). They are currently ranked 17th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 763.

New York relievers have an inherited score rate of 30.9% of 123 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 103 times in high leverage situations in addition to 92 occasions with runners on base. With 62 save situations, the Mets have tallied 34 holds in addition to 12 blown saves. They are ranked 22nd in MLB holding a save rate of 57.1%, and they have sent 290 relievers onto the diamond this year.

In their 7,539 innings on the field, the Mets are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.2% (22nd in pro baseball). The New York Mets have turned 52 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in the majors). The Mets have 762 assists, 62 errors and have accounted for 2,513 putouts this season.

During his pro baseball career, Peralta has surrendered 797 base hits and he has 1,251 K's in 1,031 frames. Peralta (75-49 career record) has earned a 3.69 ERA while allowing 7.0 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 423 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.160 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. His K/BB ratio is 3.14 and he has gone up against 4,298 batters in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-128)

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