Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/12/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-128) New York (+106)

The Boston Red Sox (44-48) are en route to Citi Field on Sunday where they will go up against the New York Mets (40-55). The moneyline on this game has Boston at -128 and New York is coming in at +106. The over/under comes in at 9. The starting pitchers will be Payton Tolle and Zach Thornton.

Boston has a slugging % of .389 and have struck out 760 times, while being walked on 277 occasions. They have accumulated 361 RBI's as well as 754 hits on the year, while their team batting average comes in at .245. The Red Sox have compiled 163 two-baggers as a team and have hit 83 balls out of the park. They have earned a total of 378 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .315. As a squad, the Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.1 runs per game, which ranks them 26th in the league.

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The Red Sox have a team earned run average of 3.65 over the course of the season (7th in the league), and they have rung up 780 batters. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 95 home runs and 356 runs in total (3rd in baseball). They have walked 265 opposing players and their FIP is 3.81 as a unit so far this season. Boston has allowed 736 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and 330 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.94 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.23.

The Red Sox have dispatched 282 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year. The relievers have inherited 108 base runners on the year with 33.3% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have a total of 54 holds so far this season (11th in MLB). Red Sox pitchers have come into the game with runners on 73 times as well as having 76 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 21 saves for the year and have blown 9 out of their 30 save chances. The Red Sox relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 70.0% and have come into the game in 85 save situations.

The Boston Red Sox have a tally of 2,440 putouts on the year, as well as 780 assists and 41 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .987 which is 9th in baseball, and have accumulated 60 double plays. The Red Sox have turned 70.1% of balls hit into play into outs in their 7,320 innings on the field, which has them ranked 15th in professional baseball.

Tolle has thrown 96 frames and is sitting with 99 strikeouts thus far in his career. Tolle (5-7 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.59 while he has gone up against 400 opposing batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 3.65 (39 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.164. He has given up 80 base knocks (7.5 hits per nine innings) with 32 free passes.

The Mets hold a slugging % of .384 and they are recording 4.17 runs per contest (23rd in baseball). They have recorded 117 doubles, while getting a free base 291 times and scoring 396 runs. New York has a total of 111 home runs for the season as well as 377 RBIs. They have been rung up on 775 occasions (19th in the league) and have notched a total of 752 base hits. The New York Mets have tallied an OBP of .304 as well as a batting average of .235 so far this year.

The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.319 with a FIP of 4.04 as a pitching staff over the course of the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.20 (870 strikeouts vs 342 free passes). They have a ranking of 18th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 774. They have conceded 105 homers and they allow 4.85 runs per 9 innings (20th in the league). The New York pitching staff have given up 456 runs on the season while having a team ERA of 4.32 (406 earned runs surrendered).

Sitting with 62 save situations, the Mets have compiled 34 holds in addition to 12 blown saves. New York has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 28 save opportunities and they have walked away with 16 saves. New York relievers have an inherited score percentage of 30.2% out of 126 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 103 times in high leverage situations and also on 93 occasions with base runners. They sit at 22nd in the league with a save percentage of 57.1%, and they have dispatched 294 relievers onto the field this year.

The New York Mets have gotten 52 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in pro baseball). The Mets have recorded 772 assists, 63 errors and are sitting with 2,540 putouts for the year. Out of their 7,620 innings on the field, the Mets have a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (24th in baseball).

Thus far in his career, Thornton has allowed 9 hits while earning 10 punch outs in 10 innings pitched. Thornton (0-1 mark in his career) holds a 4.46 ERA and has given up 8.0 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 5 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.188 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.4. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.33 and he has gone up against 42 hitters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-128)

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