Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, 9/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+129) New York (-156)

Yankee Stadium is the location where the New York Yankees (93-68) will take on the Boston Red Sox (87-75) on Tuesday in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card series. The odds on this game have Boston at +129 and New York opens at -156. The total has been set at 6.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Payton Tolle and Cam Schlittler.

As a team, the Boston Red Sox are compiling 4.3 runs per outing, which puts them at 23rd in MLB. They have notched a total of 689 runs and hold an OBP of .319. The Red Sox have accounted for 285 two-baggers as a team and have hit 163 balls out of the park. They have recorded 658 RBI's as well as 1,326 hits this season, while their batting average is .245. Boston owns a slugging percentage of .397 and have been called out on strikes 1,326 times, while taking a walk on 517 occasions.

Get all of our MLB Expert Picks

The Red Sox have a team earned run average of 3.54 this year (3rd in the league), and their staff has rung up 1,398 batters. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 153 home runs and 611 runs (3rd in baseball). They have walked 469 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.66 as a team on the season. Boston has allowed 1,307 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 566 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.98 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.23.

The Red Sox relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 76.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 156 save situations. They have accumulated 46 saves on the season and have blown 14 of their 60 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 166 runners on the season with 28.9% of those runners ended up scoring. Red Sox relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 126 times and also have had 149 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 488 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have a total of 94 holds for the year (9th in MLB).

The Boston Red Sox have 4,320 putouts on the year, as well as 1,420 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .986 which is 15th in professional baseball, and they have turned 124 double plays. The Red Sox have converted 69.4% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 12,960 innings on the field, which ranks them 20th in baseball.

Tolle has taken the mound for 164 frames and has totaled 190 strikeouts in his career. His earned run average is 3.34 (61 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.150. He has allowed 141 hits (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has had 48 free passes. Tolle (9-7 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.29 while he has faced 677 opposing batters during his time in the majors.

The New York Yankees have earned an OBP of .311 as well as a team batting average of .235 so far this year. They have struck out on 1,480 occasions (6th in the league) and have earned a total of 1,250 base hits. New York has 223 home runs for the season as well as 706 RBIs. The Yankees hold a team slugging percentage of .409 and they tally 4.59 runs per game (8th in MLB). They have recorded 224 doubles, while taking a walk 572 times as well as notching 739 runs.

The Yankees have a team WHIP of 1.174 in addition to having a FIP of 3.71 as a team on the year. They have a ranking of 3rd in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,204. The New York pitching staff have surrendered 601 runs for the year while holding an ERA of 3.24 (519 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.10 (1,450 strikeouts against 488 walks). They have allowed 165 dingers and they relinquish 3.75 runs per 9 innings (1st in MLB).

New York relievers hold an inherited score rate of 22.1% of 271 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 175 times in high leverage situations and also on 190 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 162 save situations, the Yankees have 86 holds in addition to 28 blown saves. They sit at 17th in MLB with a save rate of 61.6%, and they have sent 532 relief pitchers onto the diamond so far this year.

Out of their 12,972 innings on the field, the Yankees have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 71.1% (7th in professional baseball). The New York Yankees have turned 123 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in the majors). The Yankees have accrued 1,395 assists, 96 errors and have notched a total of 4,324 putouts during this campaign.

During his pro baseball career, Schlittler has given up 187 base hits while he has accumulated 323 K's in 266 innings pitched. Schlittler (18-9 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 2.23 ERA while giving up 6.3 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 66 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.003 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.04 and he has faced 1,065 opposing batters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+129)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get MLB picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.