Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, 4/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026

Location: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO

TV: Cardinals.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+102) St. Louis (-122)

Busch Stadium is where the St. Louis Cardinals (7-5) will attempt to beat the Boston Red Sox (4-8) on Saturday. The line on this matchup has the Red Sox at +102 while the Cardinals are priced at -122. The over/under is 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Ranger Suarez and Kyle Leahy.

As a squad, the Boston Red Sox are putting up 3.7 runs per outing, which has them sitting at 22nd in the league. They have tallied 44 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .310. The Red Sox have earned 20 two-baggers as a team and have hit 9 baseballs out of the park. They have accumulated 43 runs batted in and 89 base knocks on the season, and their batting average sits at .226. Boston has a slugging % of .356 and have struck out 114 times, while drawing a walk on 44 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.22 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.35. Red Sox pitchers have conceded 13 long balls and 55 total runs (18th in MLB). Boston has surrendered 96 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and 49 earned runs. The Red Sox hold a team earned run average of 4.19 for the season (20th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 102 batters. They have walked 46 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.28 as a squad this season.

The Red Sox bullpen have earned a save percentage of 60.0% and have come into the game in 12 save situations. They have accumulated 3 saves for the season and have not converted 2 of their 5 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 16 base runners this season and 37.5% of them earned a run for their team. Red Sox bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 11 times and also have had 14 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 39 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year. The relievers have racked up 7 holds on the season (13th in the league).

The Red Sox have turned 68.8% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 948 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 18th in pro baseball. The Baltimore Orioles have 316 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 110 assists and 12 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .973 which puts them in 29th in baseball, and have a total of 9 double plays.

Suarez has taken the ball for 770 innings and has earned 710 strikeouts during his MLB career. Suarez (53-38 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.38 and he has gone up against 3,235 hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.44 (294 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.278. He has given up 741 hits (8.7 hits per nine innings) and has 243 walks.

The St. Louis Cardinals have accumulated an OBP of .324 as well as a team batting average of .226 so far this year. They have been rung up on 99 occasions (24th in baseball) and have recorded 90 hits. St. Louis has accumulated 13 HRs so far this year as well as 58 RBIs. The Cardinals hold a team slugging % of .361 and they have an average of 4.92 runs per game (7th in MLB). They have tallied 15 doubles, while walking 53 times as well as earning 59 runs.

The Cardinals are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.523 and have a FIP of 4.95 as a unit so far this year. They are sitting at 28th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 113. The St. Louis pitching staff have surrendered 62 runs so far this season while having an ERA of 4.95 (60 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 6.10 (74 strikeouts vs 53 bases on balls). They have yielded 13 homers and they concede 5.12 runs per 9 innings (24th in the league).

With 18 save situations, the Cardinals have recorded 11 holds in addition to 2 blown saves. St. Louis has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 6 save opportunities and they have come away with 4 saves. St. Louis bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 42.3% of 26 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 18 times in high leverage situations in addition to 17 occasions with runners on. They rank 18th in baseball with a save percentage of 66.7%, and they have dispatched 47 relievers to the mound for the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals have gotten 9 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .987 (13th in professional baseball). The Cardinals have 121 assists, 6 errors and have earned a total of 327 putouts this year. In 981 innings on the diamond, the Cardinals hold a efficiency on defense of 69.7% (15th in MLB).

Leahy (6-5 mark in his career) has earned a 3.77 earned run average while allowing 8.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.50 and he has gone up against 616 batters so far in his career. He has allowed a total of 62 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.249 and having a FIP of 3.7. So far in his career, Leahy has conceded 137 hits while totaling 120 punch outs in 148 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (+102)

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