Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 9/20/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-196) Tampa Bay (+162)

The Tampa Bay Rays (93-59) will compete against the Boston Red Sox (83-70) at Tropicana Field on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has Boston at -196 and Tampa Bay is priced at +162. The total is set at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Jax.

The Red Sox have tallied 272 doubles as a team and have smacked 158 balls out of the stadium. Boston has a slugging percentage of .401 and have been called out on strikes 1,242 times, while drawing a walk on 491 occasions. As a unit, the Boston Red Sox are earning 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 19th in the league. They have accrued 642 runs batted in as well as 1,263 hits this year, while their team batting average is sitting at .246. They have notched a total of 672 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .321.

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The Red Sox have an ERA of 3.61 so far this year (3rd in the league), and their staff has rung up 1,324 batters. Red Sox pitchers have given up 148 long balls and 589 runs (3rd in MLB). They have walked 442 opposing batters and their FIP is 3.67 as a unit on the campaign. Boston has surrendered 1,242 base knocks (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 545 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 3.00 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.24.

Red Sox bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 120 times and also have had 141 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have 90 holds on the year (9th in the league). The Red Sox relievers have a save rate of 75.4% and stepped onto the hill in 149 save situations. They have compiled 43 saves on the campaign and have not converted 14 of 57 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 159 runners this season with 29.6% of them earned a run for their team. The Red Sox have dispatched 467 relievers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Boston Red Sox have earned a total of 4,081 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,331 assists and 77 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which puts them in 14th in baseball, and they have turned 117 double plays. The Red Sox have converted 69.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,243 innings, which ranks them 22nd in the majors.

Sandoval has pitched in 593 frames and has totaled 591 K's in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 4.11 (271 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.431. He has given up 584 base hits (8.9 hits per nine innings) and has 265 free passes. Sandoval (20-51 mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.05 and he has gone up against 2,601 batters during his time in the major leagues.

The Tampa Bay Rays have recorded an OBP of .329 as well as a team batting average of .260 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 1,057 occasions (30th in the league) and are sitting with 1,328 hits. Tampa Bay has 162 long balls on the year as well as 663 runs batted in. The Rays have a team slugging % of .406 and they are scoring 4.59 runs per contest (10th in MLB). They have recorded 213 two-baggers, while walking 484 times as well as putting up 698 runs.

The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.136 and have a FIP of 4.04 as a squad this year. They come in at 4th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 1,162. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have surrendered 618 runs for the season while holding a team ERA of 3.73 (563 earned runs surrendered). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,232 strikeouts vs 379 free passes). They have given up 189 HR's and they give up 4.10 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball).

They are ranked 4th in MLB holding a save percentage of 75.0%, and they have dispatched 485 relievers to the hill on the season. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 155 times in high leverage situations in addition to 126 occasions with runners on base. With 187 save situations, the Rays have 110 holds in addition to 19 blown saves. Tampa Bay has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 76 save opportunities and they have tallied 57 saves. Tampa Bay relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 33.3% out of their 180 inherited runners.

In 12,213 innings on the field, the Rays have earned a efficiency on defense of 72.3% (1st in the majors). The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 96 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (22nd in baseball). The Rays have recorded 1,207 assists, 88 errors and have a total of 4,071 putouts during this campaign.

During his pro baseball career, Jax has allowed 399 hits and he has 515 K's in 460 innings pitched. He has surrendered 204 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.164 and having a FIP of 3.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.76 and he has gone up against 1,913 hitters during his career. Jax (30-41 career win-loss record) has earned a 3.99 earned run average and has given up 7.8 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+162) and under 8.5 runs

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