Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/25/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, September 25, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (-150) Boston (+125)

The Chicago Cubs (87-70) are headed to Fenway Park on Friday where they will attempt to beat the Boston Red Sox (84-73). The moneyline on this contest has Chicago at -150 and Boston is at +125. The over/under is 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be David Peterson and Jake Bennett.

Chicago owns a slugging percentage of .430 and have struck out 1,311 times, while taking a walk on 659 occasions. They have 791 RBI's as well as 1,357 base knocks on the campaign, and their average at the plate comes in at .251. The Cubs have earned 266 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 217 baseballs out of the park. They have accumulated 837 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .339. As a team, the Chicago Cubs are scoring 5.3 runs/g, which puts them at 1st in the league.

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The Cubs have an ERA of 4.17 on the season (18th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,226 hitters. Cubs pitchers have surrendered 229 long balls in addition to 691 runs in total (12th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 483 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.64 as a team on the year. Chicago has given up 1,290 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and 651 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.26.

The Cubs bullpen have a save percentage of 54.8% and stepped onto the hill in 124 save situations. They have compiled 34 saves over the course of the season and have blown 28 of their 62 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 228 runners so far this year with 33.3% of those players crossing home plate. Cubs relief pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 161 times in addition to having 154 appearances in high leverage situations. The Cubs have sent 504 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The relief pitchers have notched 55 holds this season (30th in MLB).

The Chicago Cubs have accumulated 4,212 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,488 assists and 59 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .990 which is 1st in professional baseball, and have a total of 118 double plays. The Cubs have turned 71.9% of balls in play into outs out of 12,636 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 3rd in MLB.

Peterson (43-32 win-loss record in his career) has a FIP of 4.04 and he has faced 2,996 hitters during his time in the majors. He has given up 665 hits (8.6 hits per nine innings) and has 295 walks. His ERA is 4.10 (318 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.377. Peterson has thrown 697 innings and has racked up 682 punch outs so far in his MLB career.

The Red Sox hold a team slugging percentage of .401 and they are earning 4.33 runs per outing (20th in baseball). They have hit 281 doubles, while walking 501 times as well as racking up 680 runs. Boston is sitting with 162 home runs this season to go along with 650 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 1,283 occasions (20th in baseball) and have earned 1,294 hits. The Boston Red Sox have recorded a team on-base percentage of .320 as well as a batting average of .246 for the season.

The Red Sox hold a team WHIP of 1.239 and have a FIP of 3.67 as a staff so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.80 (1,361 strikeouts against 457 walks). They have a ranking of 14th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 1,271. They have surrendered 150 HR's and they yield 3.88 runs per 9 innings (3rd in baseball). The Boston pitching staff have allowed 601 runs this season while holding a team ERA of 3.59 (556 earned runs yielded).

Boston relievers have an inherited score percentage of 29.2% out of their 161 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 143 times in high leverage situations and on 122 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 152 save situations, the Red Sox have accrued 92 holds in addition to 14 blown saves. They are ranked 2nd in baseball holding a save rate of 75.9%, and they have dispatched 475 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the year.

In 12,555 innings on the field, the Red Sox have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (22nd in baseball). The Boston Red Sox have turned 119 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .986 (15th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have 1,371 assists, 80 errors and have earned a total of 4,185 putouts for the year.

Bennett (9-7 career mark) is the owner of a 3.79 earned run average while giving up 8.3 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4.50 and he has gone up against 441 opposing batters so far in his MLB career. He has conceded 46 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.108 and having a FIP of 3.7. Thus far in his career, Bennett has given up 101 hits while totaling 90 strikeouts in 109 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+125)

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