Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (-150) Cincinnati (+125)

The Cincinnati Reds (42-50) will play the Chicago Cubs (52-41) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has Chicago at -150 and Cincinnati is coming in at +125. The total is set at 9. The starting pitchers are Javier Assad and Nick Lodolo.

As a squad, the Chicago Cubs are putting up 5.1 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have notched a total of 471 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .337. The Cubs have accounted for 147 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 118 balls out of the stadium. They have accumulated 439 runs batted in in addition to 776 hits on the campaign, and their average at the plate comes in at .244. Chicago is slugging .412 and have struck out 778 times, while drawing a walk on 406 occasions.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 2.49 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.27. Cubs pitchers have allowed 142 home runs in addition to 421 total runs (17th in the league). Chicago has yielded 761 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 400 earned runs. The Cubs have compiled a team earned run average of 4.35 on the year (20th in the league), and their staff has rung up 726 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 291 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.78 as a unit this year.

The Cubs have dispatched 305 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 139 base runners so far this season and 33.1% of those players ended up scoring. The relievers have 33 holds on the year (29th in the league). Cubs relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 96 times in addition to having 89 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 18 saves for the season and have missed out on 16 of their 34 save opportunities. The Cubs bullpen have a save percentage of 52.9% and have entered the game in 73 save situations.

The Cubs have transformed 71.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,446 innings, which has them sitting 2nd in MLB. The Chicago Cubs have accumulated 2,482 putouts this year, as well as 858 assists and 37 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .989 which ranks 4th in MLB, and have accumulated 69 double plays.

Assad has taken the ball for 387 innings and is sitting with 304 strikeouts in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.53 (152 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.297. He has surrendered 351 base knocks (8.2 hits per 9 innings) with 151 walks. Assad (24-13 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.48 and he has faced 1,630 opposing hitters during his time in the majors.

The Cincinnati Reds have a team on-base percentage of .309 in addition to a team batting average of .227 on the season. They have struck out on 876 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have 698 base hits. Cincinnati has hit 113 home runs on the season to go along with 365 runs batted in. The Reds have a team slugging % of .389 and they are earning 4.17 runs per game (23rd in the league). They have hit 145 two-baggers, while getting a free base 344 times and putting up 384 runs.

The Reds have a WHIP of 1.447 in addition to having a FIP of 4.96 as a staff for the year. They are currently ranked 20th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 772. The Cincinnati pitching staff have relinquished 442 runs this year while holding an ERA of 4.53 (412 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.10 (738 strikeouts against 413 free passes). They have allowed 124 dingers and they allow 4.86 runs per 9 innings (20th in the league).

They rank 25th in the league holding a save percentage of 55.3%, and they have sent 328 relievers onto the field for the year. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 112 times in high leverage situations and on 105 occasions with runners on. With 90 save situations, the Reds have 51 holds and also 17 blown saves. Cincinnati has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 38 save chances and they have come away with 21 saves. Cincinnati bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 24.7% out of 146 inherited runners.

In 7,371 innings on the field, the Reds are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.5% (11th in baseball). The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 68 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in professional baseball). The Reds have recorded 756 assists, 50 errors and have earned 2,457 putouts so far this year.

Lodolo (27-24 career mark) has earned a 4.15 ERA while giving up 8.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.56 and he has faced 1,999 opposing hitters during his career. He has allowed 215 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.244 and a FIP of 4.1. In his career, Lodolo has allowed 439 base hits while he has earned 502 strikeouts in 466 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+125)

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