Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 9/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (-144) Miami (+120)

The Miami Marlins (71-70) will go up against the Chicago Cubs (79-62) at LoanDepot Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has the Cubs at -144 while the Marlins are at +120. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Clay Holmes and Ryan Gusto.

The Cubs have accounted for 238 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 198 baseballs out of the park. Chicago is slugging .431 and have been called out on strikes 1,195 times, while drawing a walk on 592 occasions. As a team, the Chicago Cubs are recording 5.3 runs per game, which has them sitting at 1st in the league. They have accrued 711 runs batted in and 1,220 base knocks for the year, while their batting average is sitting at .251. They have earned 753 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .339.

Get all of our MLB Betting Picks

They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.58 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.26. Cubs pitchers have yielded 213 long balls and also 620 total runs (13th in the league). Chicago has given up 1,168 hits (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 586 earned runs. The Cubs hold a team ERA of 4.18 so far this season (17th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,092 batters. They have walked 423 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 4.70 as a team this season.

The Cubs relief pitchers have a save percentage of 55.6% and have entered the game in 110 save situations. They have accumulated 30 saves so far this year and have not converted 24 of their 54 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 192 runners so far this season with 31.8% of them crossing home plate. Cubs bullpen pitchers have entered the game with players on base 138 times and also have had 134 appearances in high leverage situations. The Cubs have dispatched 453 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year. The relievers have earned 50 holds for the season (30th in baseball).

The Cubs have converted 71.9% of baseballs in play into outs in their 11,346 innings, ranking them 3rd in professional baseball. The Chicago Cubs have a total of 3,782 putouts on the year, in addition to 1,334 assists and 52 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .990 which is 1st in professional baseball, and they have turned 107 double plays.

Holmes (38-32 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.48 while he has faced 2,279 hitters in the major leagues. He has allowed 456 base knocks (7.7 hits per nine innings) and has had 228 free passes. His ERA is 3.54 (209 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.286. Holmes has taken the hill for 532 innings and has accumulated 507 punch outs in his career.

The Marlins hold a slugging percentage of .399 and they earn 4.36 runs per outing (20th in the league). They have recorded 217 doubles, while walking 484 times as well as recording 615 runs. Miami has accounted for 144 home runs so far this season to go along with 586 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 1,160 instances (17th in MLB) and have earned 1,162 base hits. The Miami Marlins hold an on-base percentage of .326 in addition to a team batting average of .248 this year.

The Marlins have a WHIP of 1.254 in addition to having a FIP of 4.05 as a team on the campaign. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.30 (1,142 strikeouts vs 474 bases on balls). They are sitting at 5th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,077. They have yielded 141 dingers and they relinquish 4.37 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league). The Miami pitching staff have relinquished 601 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 3.96 (544 earned runs conceded).

With 133 save situations, the Marlins have tallied 81 holds and 19 blown saves. Miami has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the game in 50 save chances and they have recorded 31 saves. Miami relievers hold an inherited score rate of 23.9% out of 176 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 136 times in high leverage situations and on 125 occasions with runners on. They sit at 17th in baseball with a save percentage of 62.0%, and they have sent 459 relievers onto the field on the year.

In 11,139 innings played, the Marlins are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (9th in baseball). The Miami Marlins have gotten 101 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .982 (29th in baseball). The Marlins have racked up 1,176 assists, 90 errors and have accounted for 3,713 putouts during this campaign.

So far in his MLB career, Gusto has allowed 184 base knocks while earning 154 strikeouts in 168 innings pitched. He has allowed 93 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.425 and having a FIP of 4.9. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.75 and he has gone up against 751 batters so far in his pro baseball career. Gusto (8-10 mark in his career) has a 4.97 earned run average while allowing 9.8 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+120)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get MLB picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.