Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 10/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Monday, October 5, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (+130) Cleveland (-157)

The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) will go up against the Chicago White Sox (84-78) at Progressive Field on Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS. The Sox lead 1-0. The odds on this game have Chicago at +130 and Cleveland is at -157. The total is set at 6.5. The starting pitchers are Sean Burke and Gavin Williams.

Chicago has a slugging percentage of .406 and have struck out 1,494 times, while taking a walk on 589 occasions. They have accumulated 740 runs batted in and 1,282 hits this season, while their batting average sits at .236. The White Sox have accumulated 252 doubles as a team and have hit 211 balls out of the stadium. They have a total of 776 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .320. As a unit, the Chicago White Sox are knocking in 4.8 runs per game, which has them at 5th in baseball.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.34 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.31. White Sox pitchers have given up 180 home runs in addition to 720 total runs (15th in baseball). Chicago has yielded 1,317 base knocks (8.2 per 9 innings) and 660 earned runs. The White Sox have an ERA of 4.12 for the year (15th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,337 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 571 opposing players and their FIP is 4.25 as a team this season.

The White Sox have dispatched 541 relievers to the mound for the year. The relievers have inherited 269 base runners so far this year and 30.5% of those players ended up scoring. The relievers have 63 holds this year (28th in baseball). White Sox relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 183 times in addition to having 156 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 41 saves for the year and have not converted 30 of their 71 chances to get a save. The White Sox bullpen have a save rate of 57.7% and have entered the game in 137 save situations.

The Chicago White Sox are sitting with 4,322 putouts on the year, as well as 1,318 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .986 which has them sitting 16th in the majors, and have earned 115 double plays. The White Sox have converted 70.2% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,966 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 12th in pro baseball.

Burke (17-18 win-loss mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.54 while facing 1,388 hitters in the major leagues. He has surrendered 287 base knocks (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 132 walks. His ERA is 3.60 (130 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.288. Burke has taken the ball for 325 innings and has totaled 340 strikeouts so far in his career.

The Cleveland Guardians have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .316 in addition to a batting average of .239 for the season. They have struck out on 1,271 instances (26th in the league) and have totaled 1,291 base hits. Cleveland has accounted for 162 home runs this season as well as 650 RBIs. The Guardians have a SLG% of .380 and they are scoring 4.19 runs per game (24th in the league). They have hit 249 doubles, while taking a walk 574 times as well as notching 678 runs.

The Guardians are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.264 and have a FIP of 3.82 as a squad on the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.60 (1,530 strikeouts vs 530 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 10th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,286. They have conceded 175 long balls and they concede 4.18 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB). The Cleveland pitching staff have given up 667 runs this year while holding an ERA of 3.77 (602 earned runs yielded).

They are ranked 6th in MLB holding a save rate of 71.9%, and they have sent 555 relief pitchers to the mound this season. Their relief pitchers have come in 178 times in high leverage situations and on 166 occasions with runners on. With 183 save situations, the Guardians have amassed 117 holds in addition to 18 blown saves. Cleveland has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 64 save chances and they have come away with 46 saves. Cleveland bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 28.4% out of 261 inherited runners.

The Cleveland Guardians have turned 108 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (17th in the majors). The Guardians have accrued 1,262 assists, 86 errors and have earned 4,313 putouts so far this year. In 12,939 innings on the field, the Guardians hold a efficiency on defense of 69.1% (23rd in MLB).

Williams (32-28 career record) is the owner of a 3.62 earned run average and has allowed 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.73 and he has gone up against 2,127 opposing batters in his career. He has surrendered a total of 205 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.227 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. During his MLB career, Williams has surrendered 412 base hits while tallying 581 punch outs in 509 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Chicago (+130)

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