Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 5/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Monday, May 4, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+106) Chicago (-128)

The Cincinnati Reds (20-13) are hitting the road to Wrigley Field on Monday where they will attempt to beat the Chicago Cubs (21-12). The line on this contest has Cincinnati at +106 and Chicago is sitting at -128. The over/under has been set at 9. The starting pitchers are Chase Petty and Edward Cabrera.

As a squad, the Cincinnati Reds are notching 4.3 runs per outing, which is 20th in the league. They have accumulated 141 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .307. The Reds have tallied 48 doubles as a squad and have knocked 44 baseballs out of the park. They have recorded 130 runs batted in and 240 base knocks this year, while their team batting average sits at .220. Cincinnati has a slugging percentage of .388 and have struck out 307 times, while taking a walk on 131 occasions.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 1.66 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.52. Reds pitchers have surrendered 36 home runs and 162 runs in total (22nd in baseball). Cincinnati has surrendered 292 base knocks (8.9 per 9 innings) and 151 earned runs. The Reds are sitting with a team ERA of 4.59 for the season (24th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 261 hitters. They have walked 157 opposing hitters and their FIP is 4.71 as a team so far this season.

Reds pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 35 times as well as having 41 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers are sitting with 25 holds on the year (3rd in the league). The Reds relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 66.7% and have entered the game in 41 save situations. They have recorded 10 saves this season and have blown 5 of their 15 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 52 base runners on the campaign and 25.0% of those runners crossing the plate. The Reds have dispatched 126 relievers to the mound so far this year.

The Cincinnati Reds have earned a total of 888 putouts this season, as well as 282 assists and 14 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .988 which has them sitting 7th in the majors, and have 33 double plays. The Reds have turned 68.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 2,664 innings, which has them sitting at 23rd in pro baseball.

Petty has pitched in 6 innings and has earned 7 K's in his pro baseball career. Petty (0-3 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 19.21 while going up against 40 batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 19.50 (13 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 3.667. He has given up 14 hits (21.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 8 free passes.

The Cubs have a SLG% of .425 and they tally 5.36 runs per game (2nd in the league). They have put up 51 two-baggers, while getting a free base 149 times as well as racking up 177 runs. Chicago has 43 home runs for the year as well as 161 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 269 occasions (18th in baseball) and have a total of 292 base hits. The Chicago Cubs have an on-base percentage of .350 and a team batting average of .258 for the year.

The Chicago pitching staff have yielded 139 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.89 (127 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 37 long balls and they surrender 4.26 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball). The Cubs have a team WHIP of 1.177 and have a FIP of 4.04 as a staff for the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.30 (270 strikeouts against 97 free passes). They rank 7th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 249.

Sitting with 21 save situations, the Cubs have accumulated 7 holds and 5 blown saves. Chicago has called on relief pitchers to enter the game in 13 save chances and they have tallied 8 saves. Chicago relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 33.3% of 45 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 32 times in high leverage situations in addition to 33 occasions with runners on. They are ranked 15th in MLB holding a save percentage of 61.5%, and they have sent 95 relievers onto the field over the course of the season.

The Chicago Cubs have gotten 21 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .986 (17th in baseball). The Cubs have accrued 295 assists, 17 errors and have notched a total of 882 putouts over the course of the season. In 2,646 innings played, the Cubs have earned a defensive efficiency of 72.1% (4th in pro baseball).

Cabrera (28-29 career mark) holds a 4.00 earned run average while giving up 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.22 and he has gone up against 1,988 batters in his MLB career. He has given up a total of 207 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.302 and having a FIP of 3.9. So far in his career, Cabrera has surrendered 379 base knocks and he has 507 K's in 466 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+106)

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