Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 5/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+126) Cleveland (-152)

The Cleveland Guardians (24-21) will compete against the Cincinnati Reds (23-21) at Progressive Field on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has Cincinnati at +126 and Cleveland is at -152. The total comes in at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Chris Paddack and Gavin Williams.

The Reds have tallied 63 doubles as a team and have hit 58 baseballs out of the park. Cincinnati is slugging .389 and have been called out on strikes 405 times, while drawing a walk on 174 occasions. As a team, the Cincinnati Reds are earning 4.3 runs per contest, which puts them at 15th in baseball. They have earned 177 runs batted in and 329 base knocks so far this season, while their team batting average is at .224. They have accounted for 190 runs while holding a team OBP of .310.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 1.69 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.46. Reds pitchers have yielded 55 home runs and 216 runs in total (25th in the league). Cincinnati has allowed 374 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) as well as 202 earned runs. The Reds are sitting with a team ERA of 4.61 for the year (27th in the league), and they have struck out 342 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 202 hitters and their FIP is 4.87 as a squad for the year.

Reds pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 49 times and also have had 56 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have earned 28 holds this season (6th in the league). The Reds relievers have earned a save percentage of 57.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 48 save situations. They have compiled 11 saves so far this season and have blown 8 of their 19 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 66 runners this season and 27.3% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The Reds have sent 165 relief pitchers to the hill for the season.

The Cincinnati Reds have 1,183 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 380 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .989 which puts them in 7th in MLB, and they have turned 42 double plays. The Reds have converted 70.4% of balls in play into outs in their 3,549 innings, which has them ranked 14th in professional baseball.

Paddack (32-41 mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.73 while he has gone up against 2,587 opposing hitters in the majors. He has given up 622 base knocks (9.2 hits per 9 innings) and has 136 walks. His earned run average is 4.80 (326 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.240. Paddack has taken the mound for 611 innings and has earned 556 strikeouts so far in his MLB career.

The Guardians have a team slugging percentage of .365 and they are recording 4.16 runs per outing (21st in baseball). They have tallied 72 doubles, while taking a walk 190 times and putting up 187 runs. Cleveland has tallied 42 home runs on the season as well as 179 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 336 instances (25th in MLB) and have recorded 335 base knocks. The Cleveland Guardians have accumulated a team OBP of .322 and a batting average of .228 so far this year.

The Cleveland pitching staff have conceded 183 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 3.81 (168 earned runs surrendered). They have conceded 53 home runs and they surrender 4.15 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Guardians are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.272 and have a FIP of 3.99 as a unit for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.50 (420 strikeouts against 153 walks). They are sitting at 18th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 352.

They rank 3rd in the league with a save rate of 78.9%, and they have sent 147 bullpen pitchers to the mound on the campaign. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 52 times in high leverage situations and also on 44 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 57 save situations, the Guardians have 37 holds and also 4 blown saves. Cleveland has had relievers step onto the hill in 19 save opportunities and they have walked away with 15 saves. Cleveland relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 26.8% out of 71 inherited runners.

In 3,576 innings played, the Guardians are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 70.0% (17th in professional baseball). The Cleveland Guardians have turned 34 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .988 (8th in professional baseball). The Guardians have recorded 341 assists, 18 errors and have earned a total of 1,192 putouts on the campaign.

In his career, Williams has surrendered 311 base hits while earning 399 punch outs in 380 frames. He has given up a total of 151 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.275 and having a FIP of 3.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.29 and he has faced 1,606 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career. Williams (23-23 career record) has earned a 3.57 earned run average and has surrendered 7.4 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+126)

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