Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 5/2/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+120) Pittsburgh (-144)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (16-16) host the Cincinnati Reds (20-11) at PNC Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has Cincinnati at +120 while Pittsburgh opens at -144. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Rhett Lowder and Carmen Mlodzinski.

As a squad, the Cincinnati Reds are notching 4.3 runs per game, which has them at 18th in the league. They have notched a total of 133 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .311. The Reds have earned 42 doubles as a team and have hit 42 baseballs out of the park. They have tallied 123 RBI's as well as 226 hits for the year, and their batting average comes in at .220. Cincinnati is slugging .388 and have been rung up 286 times, while being walked on 128 occasions.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 1.79 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.43. Reds pitchers have yielded 32 long balls and 136 total runs (13th in MLB). Cincinnati has given up 261 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) in addition to 125 earned runs. The Reds have a team earned run average of 4.02 for the season (13th in the league), and the staff has struck out 247 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 138 opposing players and their FIP is 4.48 as a team so far this year.

The Reds relievers have compiled a save rate of 66.7% and have entered the game in 41 save situations. They have earned 10 saves on the season and have blown 5 out of their 15 save chances. The relievers have inherited 45 base runners over the course of the season and 20.0% of them earned a run for their team. Reds relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 32 times in addition to having 40 appearances in high leverage situations. The Reds have sent 115 relief pitchers to the mound on the campaign. The relievers are sitting with 25 holds for the year (2nd in the league).

The Cincinnati Reds have a tally of 840 putouts this year, in addition to 263 assists and 14 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .987 which puts them in 8th in baseball, and have 32 double plays. The Reds have turned 69.9% of balls in play into outs out of their 2,520 innings, ranking them 14th in professional baseball.

Lowder (5-3 career record) sits with a FIP of 2.21 and he has faced 268 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 55 base hits (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has 24 walks. His ERA is 2.24 (16 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.231. Lowder has taken the hill for 64 frames and is sitting with 47 punch outs in his career.

Pittsburgh has accumulated 34 HRs so far this year as well as 147 runs batted in. They have notched 42 doubles, while taking a walk 121 times and putting up 153 runs. The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting with an on-base percentage of .326 and a team batting average of .244 on the year. The Pirates have a team slugging percentage of .377 and they tally 4.78 runs per game (10th in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 306 occasions (2nd in the league) and have earned 271 base hits.

The Pirates are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.270 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.69 as a team on the campaign. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.30 (301 strikeouts vs 126 walks). They are currently ranked 11th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 245. They have allowed 26 homers and they concede 4.34 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league). The Pittsburgh pitching staff have conceded 141 runs so far this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.82 (124 earned runs conceded).

They sit at 28th in the league with a save rate of 38.5%, and they have sent 114 relievers onto the field this season. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 40 times in high leverage situations and on 30 occasions with runners on. With 37 save situations, the Pirates have 24 holds and 8 blown saves. Pittsburgh has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 13 save opportunities and they have tallied 5 saves. Pittsburgh relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 37.1% of 35 inherited runners.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten 21 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (24th in MLB). The Pirates have 253 assists, 19 errors and have accounted for 877 putouts so far this year. Out of their 2,631 innings on the diamond, the Pirates hold a defensive efficiency of 70.2% (12th in pro baseball).

Mlodzinski (14-18 career record) has a 3.38 ERA while allowing 8.5 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.65 and he has gone up against 906 batters during his career. He has allowed a total of 80 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.294 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.3. During his pro baseball career, Mlodzinski has surrendered 201 hits while he has tallied 199 strikeouts in 213 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+120)

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