Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, 7/21/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Location: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+126) Seattle (-152)

The Cincinnati Reds (45-53) are hitting the road to T-Mobile Park on Tuesday where they will attempt to beat the Seattle Mariners (50-50). The line on this contest has Cincinnati at +126 while Seattle is opening at -152. The total comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Chase Burns and Luis Castillo.

Cincinnati has a slugging rate of .401 and have been rung up 919 times, while drawing a walk on 358 occasions. They have 395 runs batted in in addition to 761 hits this season, and their average at the plate is at .231. The Reds have accounted for 152 two-baggers as a team and have hit 129 baseballs out of the park. They have tallied 414 runs scored and hold an OBP of .311. As a unit, the Cincinnati Reds are notching 4.2 runs per contest, which ranks them 21st in the league.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 1.86 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.43. Reds pitchers have conceded 133 long balls in addition to 473 total runs (22nd in the league). Cincinnati has allowed 822 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) and 443 earned runs. The Reds hold a team ERA of 4.57 on the campaign (23rd in baseball), and the staff has rung up 793 hitters. They have walked 427 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.89 as a squad for the season.

The Reds relievers have accumulated a save rate of 55.3% and have entered the game in 90 save situations. They have tallied 21 saves on the year and have blown 17 of 38 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 152 base runners on the campaign and 27.0% of those runners earned a run for their team. Reds relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 109 times in addition to having 114 appearances in high leverage situations. The Reds have dispatched 348 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have a total of 51 holds on the year (16th in MLB).

The Cincinnati Reds have accumulated 2,616 putouts this year, in addition to 799 assists and 52 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .985 which has them ranked 18th in professional baseball, and have a total of 71 double plays. The Reds have converted 70.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,848 innings, which ranks them 12th in baseball.

Burns has taken the hill for 145 innings and is sitting with 185 strikeouts in his career. Burns (11-4 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.11 while going up against 601 hitters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.16 (51 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.177. He has allowed 118 hits (7.3 hits per 9 innings) and has had 53 walks.

The Seattle Mariners have accumulated an OBP of .309 and a batting average of .228 on the campaign. They have struck out on 860 occasions (11th in baseball) and have tallied 752 base hits. Seattle has 118 home runs on the campaign to go along with 387 RBIs. The Mariners hold a slugging percentage of .377 and they score 4.02 runs per outing (28th in baseball). They have 122 doubles, while taking a walk 334 times and scoring 402 runs.

The Mariners hold a team WHIP of 1.180 with a FIP of 3.54 as a staff on the year. They come in at 13th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 795. The Seattle pitching staff have relinquished 389 runs this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.61 (355 earned runs yielded). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.80 (862 strikeouts against 249 bases on balls). They have surrendered 95 dingers and they concede 3.96 runs per 9 innings (6th in MLB).

Seattle bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 29.2% out of 96 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 104 times in high leverage situations in addition to 70 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 94 save situations, the Mariners have recorded 55 holds and 15 blown saves. They are ranked 19th in the league with a save rate of 60.5%, and they have dispatched 298 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign.

Out of their 7,968 innings played, the Mariners have a defensive efficiency of 69.6% (20th in professional baseball). The Seattle Mariners have turned 85 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in the majors). The Mariners have accrued 811 assists, 52 errors and have accumulated 2,656 putouts this season.

Castillo (87-92 career mark) has a 3.64 earned run average while giving up 7.8 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.27 and he has gone up against 6,214 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has allowed 605 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.189 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. In his career, Castillo has allowed 1,300 base knocks and he has 1,574 strikeouts in 1,497 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+126)

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