Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 4/21/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (-182) Tampa Bay (+150)

Tropicana Field is the site where the Tampa Bay Rays (12-9) will take on the Cincinnati Reds (14-8) on Tuesday. The line on this matchup has Cincinnati at -182 and Tampa Bay is priced at +150. The total is set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Chase Burns and Steven Matz.

Cincinnati is slugging .326 and have been rung up 205 times, while being walked on 93 occasions. They have earned 70 runs batted in and 145 hits this year, and their average at the plate sits at .202. The Reds have earned 24 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 21 baseballs out of the stadium. They have earned a total of 78 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .297. As a team, the Cincinnati Reds are notching 3.6 runs per game, which has them at 27th in the league.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 1.72 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.35. Reds pitchers have given up 17 long balls in addition to 86 runs in total (9th in baseball). Cincinnati has conceded 170 base knocks (7.7 per 9 innings) and also 77 earned runs. The Reds have a team ERA of 3.47 on the year (8th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 170 batters. They have walked 99 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.15 as a unit for the season.

The Reds have sent 84 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have inherited 37 base runners so far this year with 24.3% of those players ended up scoring. The relief pitchers have accumulated 20 holds so far this season (2nd in baseball). Reds relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 28 times and also have had 36 appearances in high leverage situations. They have tallied 10 saves for the season and have not converted 3 out of their 13 save opportunities. The Reds relievers have a save percentage of 76.9% and have come into the game in 34 save situations.

The Chicago White Sox have notched a total of 600 putouts this season, as well as 183 assists and 11 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which is 14th in professional baseball, and they have turned 21 double plays. The Reds have transformed 71.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 1,800 innings, which has them ranked 5th in the majors.

Burns has taken the hill for 65 innings and has accumulated 89 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Burns (1-4 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.81 while he has faced 276 opposing hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.87 (28 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.242. He has surrendered 56 hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) with 25 walks.

Tampa Bay has accounted for 18 HRs for the year as well as 97 runs batted in. They have put up 30 two-baggers, while taking a walk 70 times as well as racking up 103 runs. The Tampa Bay Rays have accumulated an OBP of .331 in addition to a batting average of .259 so far this season. The Rays have a slugging percentage of .383 and they earn 4.90 runs per game (12th in MLB). They have been rung up on 155 occasions (29th in the league) and have totaled 191 base hits.

The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.285 in addition to having a FIP of 4.52 as a staff for the season. They rank 6th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 164. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have surrendered 109 runs on the year while having an ERA of 4.47 (94 earned runs conceded). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.00 (168 strikeouts vs 79 free passes). They have surrendered 27 homers and they surrender 5.19 runs per 9 innings (24th in the league).

They sit at 12th in baseball holding a save percentage of 66.7%, and they have dispatched 70 relief pitchers onto the diamond for the year. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 30 times in high leverage situations and also on 22 occasions with runners on base. With 27 save situations, the Rays have earned 15 holds and also 4 blown saves. Tampa Bay has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 12 save chances and they have tallied 8 saves. Tampa Bay relievers hold an inherited score rate of 42.9% out of their 28 inherited runners.

In 1,704 innings on the field, the Rays hold a defensive efficiency of 71.8% (4th in baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 10 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .973 (30th in pro baseball). The Rays have recorded 159 assists, 20 errors and have a total of 568 putouts for the season.

Matz (63-62 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 4.19 earned run average and has conceded 9.1 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.24 and he has faced 4,368 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has surrendered a total of 477 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.303 and a FIP of 4.1. In his career, Matz has given up 1,039 hits while he has tallied 961 strikeouts in 1,025 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+150)

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